How Crowded Was Walt Disney World during the First half of 2023?

We’re more than halfway into 2023, one of the most fascinating years ever at Disney theme parks.

During 2022, cabin fever drove tourism as travelers finally escaped their homes.

Disney warned for several quarters that Walt Disney World would witness a traffic downturn at some point in 2023. Has that happened yet?

What We Know

On April 1^st, 2023, Walt Disney World entered a new era.

On October 1^st, 2021, the most visited theme park in the world celebrated its 50^th birthday.

Don’t question the math of it, but Disney celebrated until March 31st, 2023.

The tourist patterns for this extended party are ones that won’t make sense to future researchers.

At the start of the 50^th anniversary, the pandemic caused enough health concerns that Disney throttled attendance via Park Passes.

At seemingly random intervals, attendance would drop due to COVID-19 outbreaks not just in Florida but other tourist areas.

Some guests understandably avoided airport travel for fear of contracting the mysterious virus.

Eventually, enough people either took their vaccine shots or stopped worrying about COVID-19 that the pandemic effectively ended.

At that point, consumer behavior fundamentally switched in a historic manner.

A term known as Revenge Travel unfolded, wherein people finally escaped their homes.

Where did many of them want to visit now that they could? We all know that the answer is Walt Disney World, the Most Magical Place on Earth.

So, attendance switched from “a waking nightmare” to “I’m not mentally prepared to be around this many people again.”

Seriously, I felt the latter way during my first theme park visit after the pandemic. Oddly, I never did when I visited during the pandemic, though.

The crowd control methods and social distancing absolutely worked.

Afterward, Walt Disney World returned to something approximating pre-pandemic levels.

Throughout this process, Disney officials warned that Walt Disney World attendance would drop once the 50th-anniversary party ended, though.

What Can We Learn from Wait Times?

I’ve tracked Walt Disney World (and Disneyland and Universal Orlando Resort) wait times for several years now.

This process is inscrutable at best and mercurial at worst. I’ve got to take a lot of seemingly random data and draw a broad conclusion.

Several other sites do the same thing. Most notably, Thrill-Data and Queue-Times have databased this information.

I’ve started doing this as well, but I doubt I’ll have anything to show you anytime soon.

What I can say with confidence is that wait time estimates require a substantial amount of alchemy.

Sure, we can calculate the average wait times. That’s easy enough now that My Disney Experience lists this information regularly, as do some social media sites.

However, determining what they represent involves some alchemy, as there’s rarely any single answer that fits all situations.

I strongly believe that we can draw conclusions by tracking data over time, though.

Others do as well, which has led to multiple recent discussions regarding Disney attendance.

For instance, the Wall Street Journal published this article, which interviewed MickeyBlog’s own Greg Antonelle.

Fox35 Orlando performed an excellent live interview with MickeyTravels agent Jennifer McCormick, which you can watch here:

Both conversations circled back to something I mentioned last week.

July 4^th attendance at Walt Disney World was lower than expected, at least judging by wait times.

The most recent set of wait times reinforces this point. Based on wait time intel, attendance was quite strong, but it wasn’t extraordinary.

That’s what we’ve come to expect during holiday weeks, especially July 4^th.

Sure, we had extenuating circumstances with the blistering heat and weird calendar configuration of the national holiday falling on a Tuesday…but still.

Walt Disney World was the least crowded on July 4^th that anybody had tracked in ten years.

Was Disney Attendance Down during the Past Six Months?

Here’s where the conversation grows murky – and I apologize because I realize we live in a world where everyone wants definitive answers.

Was July 4^th the product of flukish events? Was there even a problem with park attendance?

Anecdotally, MickeyBlog snagged some photos of crowds on those three days that suggested they were. The wait time calculations proved…less conclusive.

Also, there’s the side issue that Disney pays a lot of smart people a lot of money. Their sole job involves reducing wait times for popular attractions.

Over the years, Disney has taken several different approaches, including a brilliant top-down one that doesn’t worry about individual rides but rather collective park throughput.

When we emphasize wait times too much, we somewhat negate their work. It’s entirely possible that everyone did their job and uncovered nifty new tricks.

In that scenario, wait times were lower because Disney is really good at theme park management.

So, we’ve got plenty of questions here, but we also have this tweet from Scott Gustin:

Data via @ThrillData shows the average wait at each of the four WDW theme parks from Jan. 1 to July 9 in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Look at 2023 (purple). The parks are not empty. Down from 2022 in many cases? Absolutely. July 4 was surprising – but this is a better snapshot. pic.twitter.com/i1hssv6Ttp

— Scott Gustin (@ScottGustin) July 11, 2023

He’s done what good analysts should do. He has tried to compare apples to apples and show the big picture rather than make a hot take.

Gustin uses Thrill Data as his source and determines that Disney wait times have dropped overall from the same time in 2022.

However, this comparison involves a time when Disney was strictly enforcing attendance vs. the new reality of 2023.

Even after layoffs, Disney has staffed the parks more this year thanks to the return of the college and international ambassador programs, which factors into how many guests it can serve as well.

I suspect you’re getting a sense of how many extenuating circumstances are involved in guesstimating attendance.

How Was Disney Traffic during the First Half of 2023?

Based on what I’ve tracked, my precise answer is, “very good but not anywhere near 2019 levels.”

I’ll add one caveat to them. Disney may not want that many guests at its parks.

Recently, top executives have stressed that park crowd control does an excellent job of increasing guest satisfaction surveys.

I know that on our social media, countless people made comments along the lines of, “I wish I’d been there when the waits were that low.”

Obviously, demand isn’t an issue. AT ALL!

Still, I can say anecdotally that I’ve expressed surprise and confusion at several points this year when wait times weren’t as I’d expected.

For example, January and Spring Break crowds were wild. Conversely, July hasn’t been what I’d have guessed.

Last year, Disney wait times actually topped out in mid-June and then maintained in July for the most part.

I’d written that behavior off as a byproduct of Revenge Travel. Now, I’m wondering whether that’s the emerging tourist behavior.

People know not to visit the week of July 4^th due to the crowds and the heat, which oddly led to July 4^th being quite pleasant at the parks…well, the indoor attractions anyway.

The overall differences I’ve tracked with year-over-year wait times from 2022 and 2023 are typically negligible.

In most instances, the differences are so small that I’ve written them off as statistical noise.

Final Thoughts

We’re hearing reports that suggest otherwise, at least for the rest of this summer…and we’re inclined to believe those comments.

After all, they align with what former Disney CFO Christine McCarthy said would happen. 

She warned that Walt Disney World would slow down after the 50^th anniversary. And she said it several times.

Disney’s theme park intel is the gold standard in the industry. They would know first.

McCarthy also stated that in the event of slowdowns, Disney would offer deals to incentivize travelers. We’re seeing those now.

Meanwhile, we’re also witnessing events like the Oogie Boogie Bash sell out entirely.

20 dates sold out. 5 remaining. pic.twitter.com/q0CVmGEze1

— Scott Gustin (@ScottGustin) July 12, 2023

Admittedly, that’s a Disneyland event, but it’s a data point indicating that Disney demand remains strong for the second part of the year.

Notably, Walt Disney World’s equivalent event, Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party, has only sold out for Halloween Night thus far.

So, maybe there is something to the thought that people are less inclined to visit Florida right now.

I’m even skeptical about that, though. The attendance I’ve tracked during the first half of 2023 seems to be at or near best case scenario for Disney.

While the second half of the year may play out quite differently, Walt Disney World has had a magical start to 2023.

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