Walt Disney World’s July 4th Disappointed. What Just Happened?

MickeyBlog noticed a trend during July 4^th week.

We captured images of low wait times and crowds on July 3^rd and July 5^th. You may not have paid attention because you were too busy admiring this adorable pic.

Still, reports have suggested that Walt Disney World crowds were lower than they had been in the past ten years.

Yes, Disney was emptier than expected on July 4^th. What happened?

About the Crowds

Let’s be clear that a slow July 4^th at Disney is still akin to the most crowded park day you’ve ever seen.

You can tell from these images that guests overwhelmed Magic Kingdom at the start of the holiday.

So, what we’re discussing is a more general, “but it should have been bigger…,” a recurring theme with Disney recently.

We hear the same criticism about Disney movies, even though the studio earned more money during the first half of 2023 than any of its competitors.

4th of July Golf Cart Parade

Saying the quiet part out loud, everyone holds unrealistic expectations for Disney.

Then, critics assail the company whenever it fails to meet those lofty goals.

Still, less is less. And no one can question the fact that despite seemingly massive crowds during the week of July 4^th, wait times appear to be comparatively low.

Is this a sign of something more worrisome happening behind the scenes?

Well, I have thoughts…

What’s Happening Right Now?

4th of July Golf Cart Parade

Let’s start with what we know. For starters, the entire amusement industry indicated lackluster sales on July 4^th.

I’m discussing an industry-wide, systemic struggle with attendance.

Obviously, the theme parks don’t release this data, as the industry isn’t big on transparency.

Instead, we all read the tea leaves and make educated guesses. Much of what we know stems from average wait times…and that’s the issue here.

Theme parks throughout North America witnessed a dip in their line queues relative to the before times.

That’s what I call 2019 and the years before that. Before the pandemic, many theme parks increased their attendance annually.

Since 2020, the entire industry has struggled to return to those pre-pandemic norms.

Even the rise of so-called “Revenge Travel” wasn’t enough to make the parks whole again. But now, we’re tracking signs of the end of this phenomenon.

Tourists have gotten their cabin fever out of their systems and have returned to their typical pre-2020 vacation patterns.

Meanwhile, the industry hasn’t fully recovered due to innumerable issues.

For example, international travel remains a mess. The inability to gain passports is problematic in the United States at the moment.

In fact, government officials suggest it’ll remain a challenge through the end of 2023.

Here’s the scary thought. The passport backlog in our country qualifies as one of the smallest in the world.

So, the number of international tourists remains near historical lows for the 21^st century.

Disney World

The top theme parks like Disney and Universal feel this the most, but the ripple effects are propagating throughout the industry.

Two other factors come into play, and we’ll discuss those in a bit.

Evaluating the Competition

First, let’s talk about the July 4^th attendance at theme parks.

Based on the inexact science of attraction wait times, multiple parks suffered their worst holiday over the past decade.

In other words, several parks required shorter waits for their rides than had happened since 2014.

When we compare 2023 to 2019, it’s an unfair assessment, given everything that happened.

Contrasting the data with 2015-2017 is totally fair…and 2023 fell short. This wasn’t merely a Disney issue, either.

Places like Six Flags and Cedar Point felt the pinch as well. In fact, the most interesting data comes from Universal Orlando Resort.

That Orlando park also experienced its lowest July 4^th wait times since 2014.

So, everyone in the industry is looking around, wondering why July 4^th didn’t play out as expected.

Many park officials had viewed July 2023 as the dawning of a new age, a time when we’ve all permanently placed the pandemic in the rearview mirror.

Instead, July 4^th has raised new questions about the state of the industry.

What Just Happened?

EPCOT

Please bear with me for a moment.

Last year, I moved into a new neighborhood, and we didn’t really have much of a July 4^th celebration since everyone was still unpacking their stuff.

On Tuesday evening at 11 PM, a zealous American embraced the holiday by shooting off some super-loud fireworks.

Credit: Disney

A different neighbor headed straight to the community group chat and complained in a way that was never going to de-escalate the situation.

The two parties fought for the body of a day, but the upset individual had good reason to beef. They had to work on Wednesday, July 5^th.

No fireworks in Disney Springs

The government holiday was on July 3^rd, which meant that July 4^th was kinda like a Sunday for many people.

Disney and other theme parks faced the same issue, as many fans chose to visit the parks late in June rather than early July.

Photo: Disney

The calendar configuration of July 4^th on a Tuesday is especially challenging for all forms of entertainment. Movie box office took a hit this week as well.

More people went to parks and movie theaters on Monday and Tuesday, but they went back to work on Wednesday. So, they truncated their holiday plans.

We Should All Move Somewhere North

(Matt Stroshane, photographer)

I suspect that’s one of the primary reasons for this odd behavior. And the other, as mundane as the explanation may be, is the weather.

On July 3^rd, the planet registered its hottest date ever, although some ancient Sumerians may have disagreed. We weren’t there, so we don’t know.

Anyway, the new record didn’t last a day, as July 4^th became the new hottest day ever.

When you think “hottest day ever,” is your next thought, “Wow, I should go to an amusement park!”?

Photo: Disney

Of course not. You’re looking for a place with air conditioning, which is why we’re all worrying about our utility bills this month.

Between the weather and the oddity of July 4^th on a Tuesday, it simply wasn’t an ideal time to visit theme parks.

Now, these might not be the only reasons people weren’t at Disney, an idea I’ll explore in a different article, but I’m not worried about July 4^th.

When the entire industry suffers a setback, that’s a consumer behavior rather than a sign that any particular company is struggling.

Still, we’re keeping an eye on this one.

Photo: MickeyBlog

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