Experts Predict “Super-Charged” Hurricane Season for 2024
It’s almost the end of March, which means we’re getting closer and closer to hurricane season. The season runs from June 1st through the end of November.
Photo: CNN || Hurricane Lee 2023
Hurricanes can be a major factor when you’re planning summer and fall travel, especially if you’re heading down to places like Disney World (which can and has been affected by the storms). And now, experts are predicting a very active hurricane season for 2024.
Hurricane Season 2024
AccuWeather experts are warning that a “super-charged” hurricane season could bring a record number of storms in the Atlantic this year, even exhausting the list of names that run through the alphabet for the storms.
There are signs that the first named storm could pop up before June even arrives.
Credit: NOAA || Hurricane Idalia 2023
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
The 2023 hurricane season saw 19 named storms, and only four of those directly impacted the U.S. The most powerful one seen was Hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane in August.
Image: NOAA via AP || Hurricane Hilary 2023
AccuWeather is saying that all signs are pointing toward this upcoming season being worse than the last.
So why could we have a hyperactive hurricane season? Let’s talk about it.
Photo: New York Times || Hurricane Matthew 2022
The main fuel for tropical storm systems is warm water, and sea-surface temperatures are predicted to be “well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes],” said DaSilva.
The water temps in the Atlantic this past month were around or warmer than they were in March of 2005 and 2020, which both had extremely active hurricane seasons — they’re tied for the highest number of named storms, which is 30.
Photo: ABC || Hurricane Ian 2022
The warm water can not only creates more storms, but can make them intensify very quickly. Unusually warm water can also create more storms all the way until November, when the hurricane season is supposed to be winding down.
Another reason we could see a more active hurricane season this year is due to El Niño quickly flipping to La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. The transition could have major implications for the Atlantic Ocean.
Photo: NOAA
La Niña causes less disruptive winds over most of the Atlantic basin, meaning there’s a lower chance that these major storms become weakened by disruptive winds. So, the faster the transition to La Niña is, the more active hurricane season will probably be.
We had La Niña for the hurricane seasons in 2020, 2021, and 2022, which all had near or well above the historical average of named storms, which is 14.
Image Credit: WLOS, ABC13 News || Hurricane Ida 2021
Right now, AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting there will be 20-25 names storms across the Atlantic basin this year, with 8-12 being hurricanes, 4-7 being major hurricanes (at least a Category 3), and 4-6 directly impacting the U.S. All of these numbers are above the historical averages.
They also said that there’s a “10-15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year.”
Credit: NOAA || Hurricane Idalia 2023
AccuWeather is also predicting a higher than normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 175-225 — the historical average is 123. ACE measures the intensity and longevity of tropical systems throughout the year.
DaSilva said that “The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.” But, people who live in other coastal locations should also stay aware of what’s going on with the storms.
Photo: Str/Xinhua/Zuma || Hurricane Ian 2022
But, don’t get super anxious by these predictions just yet — Dr. Michael Brennan with the NHC said “I think the biggest note of caution right now…this sort of spring timeframe is sort of the lowest predictability for trying to figure out what’s going to happen with El Niño [and] La Niña. [Sea surface temperatures] have been very warm, but that can change with the pattern shift,” according to WRAL.
Image: National Hurricane Center || Hurricane Idalia 2023
We have seen hurricanes impact Disney World in the past. This usually happens when the Orlando area is expecting more of a direct impact from a storm.
Photo: Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
If this does happen, the parks and Disney Springs will usually shut down while many of the hotels will remain open. Disney is actually not a bad place to be during a hurricane, since they have a ton of backup generators, food, and activities to help you wait out the storms.
Minnie Mouse and Mickey Mouse at the Riviera on September 28, 2022 during Hurricane Ian. Photo from Emily Hill, MickeyTravels agent.
There is always a bit of risk with planning a Disney World trip during hurricane season, but they do have a great cancellation policy when these kinds of things happen.
Photo: GREGG NEWTON/AFP/Getty Images
Stay tuned for more Disney news and updates.
