Analysts Predict That Disneyland Will Bounce Back After COVID-19 Shutdown
There’s been a lot of speculation as to what might happen to the Disney theme parks once the COVID-19 outbreak has started to wain and some analysts are predicting that things will bounce back. According to a recent piece in the Orange County Register, some insiders are suggesting that post coronavirus the theme parks will have higher than usual crowd levels.
The paper spoke to Touring Plans who compile statistical analysis of the theme parks. They suggested that Disneyland will rebound from the COVID-19 closure within about two months resulting in a “surge of attendance as visitors reschedule cancelled vacations.”
As we previously reported here at MickeyBlog, both Anaheim theme parks, Disneyland’s three onsite hotels and Downtown Disney remain closed until further notice due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a recent blog post, Steven Bloom from Touring Plans (who analyzes daily crowd levels at the parks) said “A pandemic closing the parks is unprecedented,. We have data from the September 11 attacks that closed the parks and disrupted travel. During the 2008 recession, people reduced spending on vacations. The data for all disruptions in operations shows an initial reduction in attendance and then a bounce back.”
Any projections involving how businesses bounce back after COVID-19 still involve a myriad of uncertain factors including how long before the quarantine is over and any residual travel restrictions.
However, Bloom predicts, “Once Disneyland reopens, we expect that it will take 8 to 10 weeks for attendance to reach normal levels and then attendance will be above normal as people reschedule their cancelled vacations,” He adds, “It would take a year for attendance to get back to normal levels.”
According to their analytics, Touring Plans is predicting that Disneyland attendance will start off at about 30% once the park reopens and gradually increase hitting 50% of regular attendance in week 3 and 80% by week 6. Using this model it will take approximately 2 months for crowd levels to return to normal.
They go on to predict that crowd levels will go up to about 140% about five months into reopening as trepidation around the virus starts to ease. Touring Plans predicts attendance will remain at that level for about four months.
However, Bloom advises that all this could change if the parks don’t re-open until the end of Summer. A July or August opening could mean a longer recovery period due to the post Summer decline in tourism with crowds not picking up until the popular Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas periods. “The length of the pandemic and a potential subsequent recession will affect crowds returning to the parks,” Bloom wrote on the Touring Plans blog. “The shape of the adjustment curve will stay the same, but the length and magnitude of the curve will likely change.”
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