Disney Headlines for December 30th, 2022
Did Wall Street judge Avatar: The Way of Water too quickly? All signs point to yes. I’ll explain in the final Disney Headlines for 2022.
The Way of Box Office
Hi, you couldn’t possibly know this about me, but I’m a really good box office analyst and have been for some time.
Here’s me performing an interview with CNN about Disney’s 2004 box office campaign. Yeah, I’ve been doing this a while.
Not coincidentally, I’ve had a strong sense of déjà vu over the past two weeks.
In 2009, I answered questions from people who really should have known better about why Avatar bombed on its opening weekend.
Yes, I mean the Avatar that went on to become the biggest blockbuster in cinematic history.
Friends, we live in a snap-judgment society, and it sometimes gets us in trouble.
For instance, Avatar “only” opened to $77 million domestically. That total remains one of the best December debuts ever, but it wasn’t enough to satisfy some.
Critics of James Cameron – and there are always boatloads of them – questioned the time and money he’d wasted on Avatar, a 3-D movie.
At the time, nobody watched 3-D movies, which made his project look like a huge miscalculation to some.
However, what these people didn’t understand was the Christmas holiday box office behavior.
During what I call the 12 Days of Box Office, weekend totals are less important than usual.
The whole idea of weekend totals is that people are off work on those days and have an easier time getting to the theater.
Almost by definition, the weekend box office should surpass that of the weekday box office for this reason.
The holidays work differently, though. With so many people on vacation, EVERY day is like a weekend day, at least in terms of the film box office.
Since people have an easy time going to the theater, they do…and the holiday revenue bears this out each year.
The Avatar Replay
Some films you’ve never even heard of performed shockingly well because they were family films released in mid-December.
Before the pandemic, virtually everything in theaters held well during these 12 Days of Box Office.
Avatar benefited from the phenomenon more than any title in history, though. Here are Avatar’s first 10 days of box office earnings:
- $26.8 million
- $25.5 million
- $24.7 million
- $16.4 million
- $16.1 million
- $11.2 million
- $23.1 million
- $28.3 million
- $24.2 million
- $19.4 million
From looking at this list, you can probably tell the weekend dates from the weekdays, but it’s shockingly close, right?
One number sticks out, and that’s the $11.2 million. Well, there’s an explanation for that. Christmas Eve has turned into a travel day in North America.
Not coincidentally, the box office on this date almost always drops compared to the days before and after.
Still, because Avatar held so well on the weekdays, it had already earned $212.7 million after 10 days in theaters. This brings us to the sequel.
Here are Avatar: The Way of Water’s daily box office numbers thus far:
- $53.2 million
- $44.3 million
- $36.6 million
- $16.3 million
- $18.3 million
- $14.4 million
- $14.6 million
- $19.3 million
- $14.9 million
- $29.2 million
Now, the situations differ some because we’re 13 years down the road.
One of the reasons why Avatar ran for so long was due to high-quality screen scarcity at cineplexes. That’s less of an issue now, although it’s still a problem for this one.
More theaters have IMAX/RPX/3-D screens, which allows them to meet more of The Way of Water’s demand faster. There aren’t enough to meet demand, though.
Always Take a Wait-and-See Approach
Still, here’s the point I want to make. Avatar: The Way of Water’s 10th day in theaters surpasses any of Avatar’s first ten days in theaters!
Moreover, Avatar 2 had earned $261.7 million after ten days, while Avatar claimed “only” $212.7 million in that same timeframe.
On December 19th, some Wall Street investors triggered a run on The Walt Disney Company’s stock price using the loose basis that Avatar 2 had bombed.
What these short-sighted individuals failed to recognize was the first film’s behavior, which the sequel is mirroring nicely.
Avatar capitalized on the Twelve Days of Box Office to reach $350 million in domestic revenue in just 17 days.
While I’d need another few days of data to say for sure, Avatar: The Way of Water is pacing to do about the same!
Of course, the phenomenon of Avatar stems from its international revenue as well.
That picture is less rosy for The Way of Water through no fault of the film’s own.
China has pushed back against Hollywood releases during the pandemic.
Also, China still has a massive problem with the pandemic. It’s spreading faster than ever. That’s keeping people out of movie theaters.
Meanwhile, the Middle East is feuding with Hollywood over any and all kinds of human sexuality. And Disney cannot release anything in Russia because, well, you know.
So, the deck is stacked against Avatar 2. If the film earns even half of the predecessor’s title, it will have done remarkably well.
Since the pandemic’s start, only three films have earned $1 billion, and one of them, Jurassic World: Dominion only made it by $1 million.
Meanwhile, Top Gun: Maverick’s nearly $1.5 billion may prove a bit too ambitious for The Way of Water, but that’s okay. Here’s why…
Loose Tongues and False Equivalence
James Cameron is beyond caring as a director. He’s created the number-one film of all time. Then, just for kicks, he’s done it a second time.
Cameron was never afraid to say what he was thinking, no matter whom it impacted. That behavior has only intensified with age and increased ego.
Recently, Cameron joked that Avatar: The Way of Water needed to finish in the top five all-time box office, which would be about $2 billion, just to break even.
Wall Street ran with that and used it to show why Disney had lost a fortune on the project. Well, there’s just one flaw with that thought process.
Disney didn’t purchase Fox’s assets until March 2019. That was 10 years after Avatar opened in theaters.
More importantly, Cameron had filmed a significant portion of the Avatar sequel by then.
In fact – and this is car-razy! – we’ve since learned that Cameron avoided the “Stranger Things” problem by filming all the kids’ sequel scenes at that time.
Additional reports suggest that most of Avatar 3 and one-third of Avatar 4 had finished principal photography by the time Disney completed the purchase.
If these reports are accurate – and all the intel suggests that they are – Disney effectively picked up Avatar 2 and 3 after Fox had already paid for them.
Sure, Disney acquired some incidental costs after the fact, but the overwhelming majority of the production budgets count as a sunk cost…for Fox.
Disney’s already making money off the Avatar sequels right now. Cameron’s referencing the expense of the project, not Disney’s cut!
For this reason, all the rushes to judgment on Avatar 2/Disney were just plain idiotic.
On a side note, you should watch The Way of Water in theaters if at all possible. It’s gorgeous.
However, it’ll probably be available on Disney+ around March if you’re totally over movie theaters.
Thanks for visiting MickeyBlog.com! Want to go to Disney? For a FREE quote on your next Disney vacation, please fill out the form below and one of the agents from MickeyTravels, a Platinum level Authorized Disney Vacation Planner, will be in touch soon!
Feature Photo: Photo: Sciencefiction.com