Analysts Predict Disney’s 2024 CEO Succession and More
As 2024 approaches, many business analysts have broken out their crystal balls.
Yes, prediction season has arrived, and The Walt Disney Company remains one of the hottest sources of speculation.
Here are a few bold predictions analysts believe could happen with Disney in 2024.
Bob Iger Stays Even Longer
Frankly, I despise a couple of these predictions. Not only are they trite but also lazy.
More importantly, within the framework of 2024, they’re not even viable.
I mention this as a preface to some unnamed analyst boldly stating that Bob Iger will extend his contract beyond 2026.
Honestly, I cannot even fault the person for their logic. The justification for this prognostication is, “fool me five times, shame on me.”
I make variants of that joke myself, as it definitely applies to Iger’s behavior the last, oh, ten years.
Still, Iger just announced that he will stay through the end of 2026. We’re still in 2023.
That prediction strikes me as at least 18 months premature. Then again, the prematurity of the statement doesn’t make it wrong.
Dana Walden Will Be Named Iger’s Successor
I kinda want to let these two anonymous people fight this one out since their ideas directly conflict.
While one believes that Bob Iger is only leaving Disney in a coffin, another thinks that he’s had enough and is ready to move on.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but let’s explore this line of thinking, too.
According to this prediction, Dana Walden, the Co-Chairman of Disney Entertainment is Iger’s choice to succeed him.
I actually think there’s a one-in-three chance this is true. Right or wrong, I’ve never perceived Alan Bergman, her Co-Chairman, as a viable candidate.
Similarly, if Disney wanted Thomas Staggs in that role, he’d already have it.
So, that narrows the list of likeliest candidates to Kevin Mayer, Josh D’Amaro, and Walden.
Importantly, Walden was the one who kept Iger in the loop while he was away from Disney. He trusts her, and she’s earned that loyalty and respect.
As I recently discussed, the problem here isn’t the idea itself; it’s the timing.
Walden heads all the Disney filmmaking, along with Bergman. Hey, remind me. How did Disney do at the theaters this year? Exactly.
Disney must wait until the timing is ideal to name the head of Disney Entertainment as Iger’s successor.
So, there’s really only one viable time on the 2024 calendar for that to happen. It’s soon after the release of Deadpool 3.
Otherwise, next year’s film schedule looks slow on paper for Disney, making it a less-than-ideal time to promote the person in charge to CEO-in-waiting.
A Potential Surprise Candidate Emerges
In the article I just linked, I noted that only Parks Chairman Josh D’Amaro would fit the timing portion of a 2024 announcement.
The Parks division’s success appears all but assured in the short term, barring some other pandemic-sized black swan event.
So, he’s the best-positioned executive among the known Disney candidates to succeed Iger.
Notably, the story does add a curveball, though. While it still doesn’t mention a person’s name, the author notes something about the picker.
This individual correctly predicted that Iger would return to Disney in 2022, that Chris Licht would flame out at CNN, and that Christine McCarthy would exit Disney.
All three of those things happened. Going three for three on these predictions has earned the predictor some respect from the author.
That’s why the latest suggestion carries more heft than usual. This person lists Electronic Arts CEO Andrew Wilson as Iger’s potential successor.
Disney has made no secret of the fact that it wants to expand its gaming division.
An acquisition of EA with Wilson as the successor to Iger passes the laugh test.
I still don’t buy it, but I’m biased by the fact that I don’t think much of EA as a business, at least not under the current regime.
Yet Another Candidate…
Finally, we have the most predictable of predictions.
Someone suggested that Disney will buy Candle Media, with Iger planning Mayer to replace him.
I’ve actually claimed this on my media podcast multiple times and on MickeyBlog as well. Like the Wilson idea, this one’s viable.
However, I again circle back to what I said in the other article. Candle Media’s currently begging investors to adjust their finance rates.
The acquisition of Hello Sunshine has proven disastrous for them. So, this is the worst possible time to suggest this idea.
Realistically, depending on when the reporter performed the interviews, the analyst may not have even known about Candle’s plight.
Nelson Peltz Will Win a Seat on Disney’s Board
Okay, I openly guffawed at this one. It reminded me of an old Krusty the Clown quote, “I thought the Washington Generals were due!”
Anyway, these aren’t my predictions, so let’s allow for the possibility that this person is correct.
Here is their logic. Oh wait, they didn’t add any. Instead, they merely suggested without logical support that Disney stockholders will favor Peltz.
How could anyone resist his effervescent charm, I guess?
Anyway, while the forecaster didn’t explain the thought process, they weren’t alone in projecting a partial victor for Team Peltz.
A different analyst said that while Peltz is probably unelectable as a member of Disney’s Board of Directors, what with them hating him and all, Jay Rasulo might not be.
So, if someone can prove that Jay Rasulo still has a pulse, he could be the compromise candidate.
As a reminder, Peltz tried to bully his way onto the board in 2023. Iger smacked him around so much that Peltz dropped out before the vote.
Later in the year, Peltz tried again. This time, Disney hired a new CFO, Hugh Johnson, who spent a couple of years keeping Peltz off PepsiCo’s board.
In other words, Peltz simply cannot catch a break against Disney, even when his billionaire buddy, Isaac Perlmutter, is financing the battle.
A few weeks ago, Peltz hinted that he wanted three seats on Disney’s board. Now, he’ll be happy and call it a win if he can sneak Rasulo on there.
Of course, I’m looking at this from the outsider perspective. It’s an entirely possibly that investment fund people are talking.
They’ve got the share votes that matter, so who really knows? Personally, I’d be shocked if someone as widely disliked as Peltz won a vote, but we’ll see.
One Final Prediction about Disney and Apple…
No, not that one.
While the prediction occurred in a different forum, another respected analyst just made a bold claim.
Dan Ives just said – and not for the first time – that he believes Disney will sell ESPN to Apple soon.
This prediction flies in the face of comments Iger has made, which explains why it reminds me of Hulu.
Throughout 2022 and 2023, analysts forecast a Comcast acquisition of the service.
Then, when push came to shove, Iger did exactly what he had indicated and purchased Comcast’s stake.
For this reason, I take Iger at his word when he states that Disney will control ESPN into 2025.
Having said that, I fully believe that Disney would happily sell a piece of ESPN to Apple.
As you can see, a lot of balls are in the air as we enter 2024. So, Disney will once again test Bob Iger’s juggling skills.
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Feature Photo: AFP