How Much of What Disney Announced at D23 Is Real?

The Orlando Sentinel touched on something the other day that has itched in my brain since the D23 Expo.

During the all-important parks panel, Josh D’Amaro and a team of Disney insiders announced plans for vast improvements coming to the parks.

At the time, my mood bordered on euphoria as I anticipated each enhancement.

However, as I rewatched the parks panel, the more cynical part of my mind kept coming back to a sticking point.

Disney simply discussed some of these projects without confirming they would ever happen, and that’s a problem.

Several announcements from the 2019 D23 Expo remain in limbo or are dead.

So, this fact has forced me to wonder. How much of what Disney just announced is real vs. false hope.

The Perils of Vaporware

Let’s start by acknowledging the dancing pink elephant in the living room. In 2019, Disney went hog-wild with its theme park attraction declarations.

Nobody could have known at the time that the first worldwide pandemic in a century would occur soon afterward.

For this reason, we should all give Disney the benefit of the doubt and some leeway on the subject of canceled projects.

When the pandemic occurred, Disney lost most of its revenue streams overnight.

No business course in the world teaches companies what to do when they suddenly lose more than half their income. It’s an impossible circumstance.

Virtually overnight, Disney executives were forced to cut the capital expenditures budget at the parks.

The early estimates were a theme park shortfall of $900 million in spending. So what does that sort of setback look like in practice?

My colleague, Madeleine Lilly, recently wrote about all the D23 announcements from 2019 that never advanced.

Three of the highlights all impact EPCOT. Disney had promised a new Mary Poppins attraction and a redesign of Spaceship Earth’s story.

Executives also announced the groundbreaking PLAY! pavilion, an immersive experience that would modernize EPCOT in a way the park desperately needs.

How many of those projects remain in play? Only Disney insiders know for sure, but CEO Bob Chapek has publicly lamented the loss of the Mary Poppins ride.

In fact, his stance suggests that Disney really wants to construct this ride. It simply hasn’t been able to justify the expenditure yet.

That’s why I struggle to describe the 2019 D23 disappointments as vaporware. Disney fully intended to complete these projects.

Park officials simply lacked the funding to move forward with their plans.

Disney understandably prioritized other projects like Tron Lightcycle Power Run and Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind instead.

The Power of Hope

Hope springs eternal, especially among Disney fans. We believe in the company because it’s done the seemingly impossible so many times.

For this reason, we tend to trust Disney, even after its leadership disappoints us. We’re all human, and we make mistakes.

Thankfully, Disney’s are few and far between, despite what social media is trying to persuade you to believe.

So, we’re right to have confidence in the company. Those financial woes remain, though.

Disney has reported record revenue thus far in 2022, but it must make up for 2020 and 2021, the disaster years.

As such, Disney’s short-term park plans must remain modest. It’s frustrating, but it’s the reality in which we live.

Along those lines, Disney cannot afford to spend money on anything park-related unless it will turn a profit quickly.

During the pandemic, I cynically stated that Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser was Disney’s biggest priority.

I said that because the Star Wars Hotel possessed the quickest, best earnings potential.

For all its wonders, Tron Lightcycle Power Run doesn’t have that. Sure, it’ll drive traffic, but Magic Kingdom’s already the most popular theme park on Earth.

In math terms, more infinity is still just infinity. So there’s a point of diminishing returns with park enhancements there.

Instead, Disney performed a magic trick by persuading the same customers to pay more during a visit. We may not like the strategy, but the results are objectively incredible.

That newfound revenue has a snowball effect. As the years advance, Disney should earn more and more from these changes.

That tactic pays for future park developments, which means we DO have reason to hope that Disney will build these new projects.

How Much of What Disney Just Announced Is Real?

Here’s the subject that matters, but it’s incredibly challenging to unpack.

Disney just hinted at new themed lands for Moana, Coco, Encanto, and Zootopia.

Only one of them already exists anywhere. That’s Zootopia, and it hasn’t even opened yet at Hong Kong Disneyland.

More remarkably, Disney flat-out acknowledged that plans exist for Magic Kingdom II, an entire theme park based on Disney Villains.

In a way, Disney just used its most prominent platform, the D23 Expo, as a giant guest survey.

Executives “announced” these new projects to measure audience reactions.

Anything that earned massive applause has become that much more likely to happen.

Sure, most of this qualifies as common sense already. If Disney executives didn’t know that people wanted a Villains theme park, they shouldn’t work for Disney.

However, D23 exists to excite the fanbase. Also, whether these executives admit it or not, they know that a new theme park is coming to Orlando.

Disney doesn’t want Universal’s Epic Universe drawing too much attention. So, these D23 blue-sky illustrations demonstrated something else.

We witnessed a power play by the company with a de facto monopoly in the theme park industry.

Disney just reminded everyone that no matter what Universal does, the fifth theme park will top it.

Executives are perfectly willing to let Universal go first in this high-stakes rivalry that’s been mainly one-sided thus far.

Universal desperately wants people to believe it’s gaining market share, but Disney simply dwarfs its counterpart. A bigger minnow is still just a minnow.

Disney’s main priority involves pleasing its fanbase. Therefore, I doubt the company would discuss any of these plans publicly unless they were in the offing.

One of them, Zootopia at Disney’s Animal Kingdom, is almost definitely happening.

What about the Others?

I’ve heard about the potential for a Zootopia themed land for a while now.

In fact, when legendary Imagineer Joe Rohde left, some folks suggested that the last resistance to the idea had vanished. He was the primary holdout, at least according to some.

The idea of a Moana themed land or attraction in that area was new to me.

While looking at the land plots for DinoLand U.S.A., I realized it’s entirely possible, though. Disney would likely build to the water here.

That parcel is bigger than the one that DinoLand currently uses. So, two themed lands are possible. This move would also solve a longstanding issue.

Disney would level the playing field between the east and west sides of the park. Currently, Pandora – The World of Avatar claims most of the foot traffic, while DinoLand U.S.A. seems like more of an afterthought.

Of course, the more exciting conversation involves what lies beyond Big Thunder Mountain Railroad.

Disney wants people to believe that Encanto and Coco themed lands are possible.

While they’re right, we should acknowledge that the drawing power of intellectual property matters.

I love Coco more than almost anyone you know. Even I acknowledge that its popularity is a drop in the bucket compared to Encanto, though.

Building the Encanto house, Casita, isn’t just a no-brainer for Disney. It’s a rumor I’ve heard for a while.

Once Encanto turned into the Titanic of streaming services, its park presence appeared certain to increase.

As for Coco, I love the blue-sky plan for a Day of the Dead City. Realistically, I don’t know whether it would add enough attendance to justify the expense, though.

So, if this project happens, I suspect it would either come after Encanto or as part of a simultaneous expansion.

How about a Villains Theme Park?

I’ll say what we’re all thinking here. This is a money idea for a theme park. If they build it, I will come to visit. Repeatedly.

Still, a fifth theme park comes with ancillary concerns. Let’s start with the financial aspect.

Even if Disney had cash to burn – and it doesn’t – Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge cost more than $1 billion as a project. That’s one themed land.

Disney and the local government spent more than $5.5 billion to construct Shanghai Disneyland…and that was five years ago. Hyperinflation is real.

A new Disney theme park in Orlando likely costs a minimum of $2.5 billion, $4 billion to do it right.

Disney wouldn’t need to start from scratch as it did in Shanghai. So, that reduces the expense a bit.

Even so, that’s $4 billion in capital outlay for a company that just spent $71.4 billion on the Fox acquisition and will owe Comcast at least $10 billion for Hulu in 2024.

I struggle to make the finances work here. And that’s only half the problem.

Other Reasons Why A New Park Is Challenging

Disney also faces logistics challenges. For example, a new theme park requires more traffic.

Many people will drive even if Disney designs a Disney Skyliner expansion with the park.

The thought of more traffic in Orlando will make the locals curl up in a ball and cry. Unfortunately, it’s already near critical mass.

Finally, you may have heard that Disney isn’t getting along well with the state government.

Theme parks require permits and other legal filings. I wouldn’t want to be the person at Disney responsible for that part of the gig.

For all these reasons, as much as I WANT a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World, I cannot envision it happening anytime soon.

Disney probably cannot, either, which explains why they talked about it while tiptoeing around any confirmation that it’ll ever happen.

Let’s check back on this one around the time of the 2024 D23 Expo.

Feature Image Credit: Variety

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