Could Disney Leave Florida…Take Two!
In April of 2022, I wrote an article about a seemingly absurd question. Could Disney leave Florida?
While the idea seemed laughable a year ago, it has grown that much more topical lately.
Photo: Fox35Orlando.com
At the moment, Disney is suing the state of Florida, while the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District is suing Disney right back.
Meanwhile, Florida has voted to oversee monorail safety, a task formerly left to Disney.
EPCOT
At the moment, tensions are high, while fuses are short. And rumors run rampant about outlandish propositions.
Could Disney leave Florida? Let’s discuss what has changed over the past year.
Is Disney Stuck in Florida?
Photo: Pexel.com
First, we must define terms. What would you consider stuck?
Disney currently owns and operates five theme parks and licenses a sixth, Tokyo Disney Resort.
Two of those theme parks, Disneyland and Walt Disney World, reside in America.
Photo: Disney
The odds of either one of these parks closing is roughly the same as your recording yourself in the shower tomorrow, uploading the video to TikTok, and then watching the song hit #1 on Billboard’s Top 100.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m sure you have a lovely singing voice. But let’s be real.
Photo: TikTok
Only one person/group in the world can have the number one for the week. You’ve got better odds of winning the lottery.
Based on this analogy alone, you can tell that Disney isn’t going anywhere.
Photo: Wikipedia
The reasons why Florida’s government has struggled to neuter Disney are the same ones that keep Disney in Orlando.
Disney’s roots are too deep, firmly entrenched as a thriving business. And that’s the point you should remember.
Photo:leg.state.fl.us
As I’ve told you repeatedly, everything we’re witnessing right now is political theater, albeit with real-world ramifications.
When Florida chooses to regulate monorails, somebody must do that, and they likely won’t have the same experience as Disney.
So, Disney must oversee the people ostensibly selected to oversee Disney. Otherwise, the monorail system would suffer safety incidents.
Yes, the whole thing is next-level wild, but here we are. But your favorite company must grin and bear it.
While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited, he just started his new term.
Photo: Maria Tamo/Getty Images
He’ll have more than three years to pick at Disney unless he wins the Presidential campaign, a proposition that grows less likely each week.
Disney doesn’t want the overhead or the headaches, but the money is too good.
Facts about Walt Disney World
Photo: Washington Post
Disney will report fiscal earnings in a couple of days. For now, I’ll use the fiscal 2022 data.
The theme park division called Disney Parks, Experiences and Products earned $7.9 billion…and those totals were deflated by the pandemic.
Photo: skillastics.com
For fiscal 2023, Disney theme parks should earn $8.5 billion or more. And you should bet on more.
While Disneyland Resort remains wildly popular and Disney cruises are back up and running at full efficiency/luxury, Walt Disney World remains the crown jewel.
Photo:Disney Cruise Line
Magic Kingdom has claimed the highest theme park attendance in the world for several consecutive years.
You should expect the four Walt Disney World parks to finish among the 12 most trafficked theme parks in the world this year.
Crowds in Galaxy’s Edge on Star Wars Day
As you can tell, plenty of that $8.5 billion comes from Florida. It’s a large enough number to put up with a meddling governor running an election campaign.
Any number that starts with a B justifies that aggravation.
From Disney’s perspective, the Walt Disney World vacation resort averages at least 58 million annual guests.
Those numbers are actually five years old, but the pandemic paused Disney’s growth.
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the number surpasses 60 million in 2023/2024.
Independent of specifics, no sane company would willingly dismiss approximately 60 million customers overnight.
Even if Disney built a new theme park elsewhere, it’d need decades for the new place to match the appeal of Walt Disney World.
Could Disney Build a New Theme Park?
In a word, yes.
For all the bluster and posturing we’re witnessing right now, Florida and Disney are de facto married. Yes, it’s currently a toxic relationship, but they’re stuck together.
Photo: Getty Images
However, Disney could feasibly reduce resources at Walt Disney World or explore exterior options.
I strongly doubt the former happens; it’s more theoretical. The latter is something I expect Disney to contemplate at some point.
I previously mentioned the Amazon HQ2 bidding as an analog. If Disney wanted to take this approach, we know it’d have bidders.
North Carolina State Sen. Michael Garrett has introduced a bill called "Mickey's Freedom Restoration Act," which is aimed at attracting theme park businesses to North Carolina, including Disney. pic.twitter.com/cFSs11Xgol
— Ashley Carter (@AshleyLCarter1) April 19, 2023
Amazon’s idea in 2017 prioritized expansion. The company wanted a second headquarters and – let’s be blunt – tax incentives.
So, Amazon executives initiated a bidding war wherein cities and states could bid for a new Amazon headquarters, the so-called HQ2.
Photo: Amazon
Amazon sifted through a staggering number of proposals, as locals attempted to lure the new headquarters to their areas.
Ultimately, Amazon chose the most beneficial locale for HQ2, which will open next month.
You can take that same scenario and apply it to Disney. According to a CNBC study, Disney attracts more than 41 percent of all Florida tourism.
You can imagine how appealing such a proposition would be to a different state.
Even adding 20 million annual tourists would fundamentally alter a state’s financial status.
Cities and states carve out sizable tax breaks for professional sports stadiums. They could justify substantially larger incentives for Disney.
For this reason, I’ve watched the Amazon bidding and wondered why Bob Chapek and Bob Iger haven’t done the same.
Currently, Disney appears to like its East Coast/West Coast setup, but building a new park somewhere between them makes sense to me.
Could Disney leave Florida?
Photo: The Wall Street Journal
I’ll answer the question this way. If DeSantis and Florida’s government believed this possibility were realistic, they’d behave MUCH differently.
Losing Walt Disney World would absolutely wreck Florida’s economy.
Photo: AP
I don’t know if there’s such a thing as a Great Depression for a single state, but it’d be along those lines.
Florida is already struggling under the weight of soaring housing and insurance costs.
The sudden unemployment of 75,000 Disney workers and tens of thousands in associated businesses would devastate Florida.
I say that before we factor in the loss of tax income stemming from Disney tourism.
Photo: Disney/Universal
A Disney closure would cause ripple effects of lost revenue at Universal Orlando Resort and SeaWorld Orlando as well.
These theme parks earn secondary visits from Disney vacationers trying something different for a day or two. They’d lose that immediately. So, they’d suffer financially as well.
Photo: kindpng.com
In short, Florida couldn’t survive without Disney. It’s not even close. The state would require at least a decade to recover from the loss.
So, we must assume that Florida politicians don’t envision a scenario wherein Disney leaves.
Credit: WESH2
Still, the scenario I suggested remains plausible and increases in likelihood every time the political situation in Florida regresses.
Disney could feasibly accept bids from more reasonable governments in other states. Then, it could build a third theme park with more favorable self-governance terms.
Photo:visitorlando.com
As a reminder, Disney has tried this before. The timing feels right to research what’s out there.
Disney had promised $17 billion in infrastructure on its Florida campus. You could build a really nice new theme park for that money…
Photo: MickeyBlog
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Feature Photo: Matt Stroshane/Walt Disney World Resort via Getty Images
