Did We Just Learn When Disney’s Next Park Will Open?
Recently, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District, formerly known as Reedy Creek, released a new document.
Included in this release was a new developer agreement for Walt Disney World.
Central Florida Tourism Oversight District
Nobody would expect you to read all 611 pages of it, as that’s my job. But there’s one tidbit that stands out.
Disney projects massive theme park attendance growth over the next 20 years.
@HazenWESH on Twitter
Here’s what Disney’s dramatic theme park growth estimate means to you and me.
About Disney Attendance
Photo: TEA
Every year, I report on a tome colloquially known as the “theme park bible.”
The Themed Entertainment Association (T.E.A) publishes its Global Attractions Attendance Report.
Photo: Computer Hope
This document takes a ton of time and resources to compile, which explains why it’s also a bit behind the times.
We’re in August of 2025, yet the 2024 report isn’t scheduled for release until next month.
Photo: sciencenews.org
Also, the data in it is admittedly a bit suspect in that it’s all based on research.
Disney has never publicly confirmed its attendance, nor does it ever want that data available in the wild.
Test Track Crowds
Once people possess hard numbers, they know whether theme park attendance is increasing.
Should Disney ever face a downturn in tourism, it would face an outcry from its critics.
Since executives understandably don’t want that headache, Disney will never be transparent about attendance.
That’s where the T.E.A. comes in, as it canvases theme parks around the world to form a consensus.
Main Street, U.S.A.
And in the evaluation of the current Global Attractions Attendance Report, Disney registered 142.1 million tourists in 2023.
Again, that’s an estimate, but it comes with the ring of truth. We also know more about the company.
Fantasy in the Sky Fireworks crowds
Specifically, Walt Disney World’s four theme parks hosted 48.77 million guests.
So, 34.3 percent of all Disney tourism goes directly toward Walt Disney World.
To a larger point, an average of 133,616 tourists enter the four theme parks there each day.
So, nearly one million people spend time at Disney World each week. But those are estimates.
We just received some data from Disney that’s way more reliable, and it’s enlightening.
Disney by the Numbers
Photo: Fox News
So, here’s the Central Florida Tourism Oversight’s (CFTOD) public document that only obsessive people like me will ever read.
We’re only focusing on one part of the 611-page report today, so if you want to follow along, it’s simple.
Photo: CFTOD
Do a search on the page for the number 475. There are only six search results, and half of them aren’t relevant.
Let’s talk about the first result, which represents the entirety of this conversation.
Here’s the data for Walt Disney World’s estimated daily attendance:
- 2025 Low: 205,401 2025 High: 307,584
- 2030 Low: 225,986 2030 High: 338,507
- 2035 Low: 243,181 2035 High: 366,505
- 2045 Low: 335,592 2045 High: 475,053
Crowds
The CFTOD describes the entries as: “Daytime…population (aka) the total number of persons that are present in the District during a typical daytime period.
Those numbers should intrigue you, but let’s backtrack a bit first. Right above that chart is something essential.
The CFTOD has listed Disney World’s estimated attendance. Do those numbers look familiar?
Why yes, they’ve just plugged in the same data I previously listed from the T.E.A.
Photo: Disney
They added the water park information, which represents the only discrepancy here.
While Disney knows this data exactly, they aren’t willing to share it with the CFTOD for…reasons.
Photo: planDisney
But those are the 2025 estimates for daily attendance at Walt Disney World.
On a slower day, approximately 205,000 people visit the parks.
Dreams That Soar crowds
During peak season, that total swells to more than 307,000, which gives us a range.
Based on this data, Disney should average 256,000 people at the parks every day in 2025.
Crowds in Magic Kingdom
That’s a bit of a sloppy take, but it works for our purposes.
What We Just Learned
Photo: The Business Journal
Now, let’s talk about the growth estimates that the CFTOD just posted, possibly to Disney’s chagrin.
As a reminder, the people running the CFTOD performed a hostile takeover of Reedy Creek.
Photo: Google earth
While the temperature in the room has cooled, the parties still aren’t friends by any stretch.
So, it’s debatable how much of this data Disney wanted out there, given what I just said about the perils of transparency.
Photo: Reedy Creek
The CFTOD just flatly stated theme park growth estimates at Walt Disney World for the next 20 years.
Here’s the projected growth per five-year period.
Spring Break Crowds
- 2025: 256,493 daily visitors (current year projection)
- 2030: 282,247 daily visitors (growth of 25,754 daily guests)
- 2040: 304,843 daily visitors (growth of 22,596 daily guests)
- 2045: 405,323 daily visitors (growth of 100,480 daily guests)
Magic Kingdom
Do you see it? If not, take another moment. I swear to you that there’s something VITAL here.
Over the next 15 years, the CFTOD projects growth of less than 50,000 daily guests.
Long Lines at Spaceship Earth in EPCOT
In simplest terms, Disney would add about 3,000 more daily tourists at the parks each year…until the 2040s.
At that point, Walt Disney World will experience sudden growth of 20,000 more daily guests each year.
Disney’s Stealth Theme Park Announcement
Image: The Healthy Mouse
What could possibly cause that sort of explosive growth in a matter of five years?
Come on, I think you can figure it out. Yes, the CFTOD seems to have given away the timeline for the next Disney World theme park.
EPCOT
Over the next 20 years, the parks will add roughly 150,000 daily guests…but two-thirds of them are projected in the 2040s.
That’s a tell, my friends. Disney has already put it in the paperwork when it’s ready to build a new theme park.
Could Disney accelerate the timeline? Absolutely! If the summer weather proves a deterrent, I suspect that Disney will.
Currently, the paperwork flatly states a massive increase in tourists in the 2040s.
Time to Brave the Crowds!
There’s literally only one thing that could cause that sort of attendance surge.
So, we can pencil in Disney next theme park for the early 2040s.
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