Disney Worried About the Wrong Thing This Summer
For the body of five years, theme park analysts circled the summer of 2025 on their calendars.
Insiders considered this season an inflection point for the entire industry.
Photo:visitorlando.com
These so-called experts put Disney on the defensive for a long time over a ridiculous thing.
Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we know the truth. Disney worried about the wrong thing this summer.
Let’s talk about the illusory threat and the truly disruptive event.
Chicken Little Was Wrong Most of the Time
Getty
Twenty years ago, Disney released a charming little movie I quite like named Chicken Little.
Yes, it’s based on the folk tale “Henny Penny,” which is itself similar to Aesop’s fable about the boy who cries wolf so often that nobody believes him when he tells the truth.
Photo: Disney+
Well, the thing that gets lost in this story is that Chicken Little’s signal-to-noise ratio is terrible.
He predicts calamity dozens of times, but he only gets it right once.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately in the context of what the theme park industry loves to do.
Some people have entered the strange business of predicting Disney’s downfall.
(Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)
For whatever reason, they spend an inordinate amount of time claiming that it’s the end of days for Disney.
Some of the explanations involve clickbait, others lead directly to politics, and a few are because a few folks hate that others are happy.
Photo: Universal
None of these explanations are great. And they intensified due to a highly anticipated event.
Seven years ago, Universal Studios announced a new theme park, Universal Epic Universe.
Photo: Universal
This third gate at Universal Orlando Resort promised to be the most Disney-like Universal theme park ever.
To some, the impending debut of Epic Universe would lead directly to the downfall of the House of Mouse.
Disney vs Epic Universe
We’ve discussed this belief on several occasions, and it even has a catchy name: The Theme Park Wars.
The reality here couldn’t be further from the truth, though. Disney and Universal aren’t enemies.
Photo: Universal
Sure, Comcast and The Walt Disney Company cannot stand one another, but that’s a side issue.
Universal recently provided a warm welcome to Disney Experiences Chairman Josh D’Amaro and others.
Photo: Universal
Epic officials merely wanted to talk shop with their industry peers. That’s the true nature of the relationship.
Did Universal Hurt Disney?
MLB
So, everyone waited with anticipation for Epic Universe to debut and utterly destroy Disney.
In sports terms, that’s like waiting for me to throw a fastball past Aaron Judge. One: my fastball isn’t very fast.
Photo: D23
Two: the odds of me getting a fastball past Aaron Judge are somehow lower than zero percent.
Similarly, Epic Universe was never going to bring down Disney, as the gap between the two businesses is too vast.
Photo: Universal
Technically, I’m jumping the gun a bit here by saying the above with finality. However, I know I’m right.
The Hollywood Report just published an extensive evaluation of The Theme Park Wars. Here’s a graph from it.
Photo: Universal
That’s research performed by the investment firm MoffettNathanson about Disney’s summer wait times.
Their analysis indicated “that Epic Universe isn’t directly taking away visitors” from Walt Disney World.
Photo: orlandoattractions.com
That’s just common sense, although we’re technically waiting for Disney’s next fiscal earnings call to confirm.
Basically, Epic Universe opened, it’s great, everyone loves it (including D’Amaro), and it’s business as usual in Orlando.
Photo: Disney
The purpose of Epic was never to destroy Disney. That would be counterproductive for Universal officials.
Disney is a rainmaker for Central Florida tourism, attracting millions of guests annually.
MickeyBlog/Universal
No, all Universal wanted to do was entice some of its guests to stay a couple of more nights.
Frankly, Universal couldn’t have been clearer about its intent, but that story is neither sexy nor inflammatory.
Photo-Illustration: Vulture | Photo: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images, Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
You don’t go viral these days unless your story has a sexy and/or inflammatory hook to entice the algorithm.
Disney Worried about the Wrong Thing
Disney
But Walt Disney World isn’t having a great summer. That graph actually shows it if you know how to look.
Note that July’s wait times are trending lower compared to 2023 and 2024.
Photo: Disney
That’s partially because Disney has added several new attractions and experiences.
Each time Disney does that, as long as theme park attendance doesn’t increase significantly, wait times drop.
It’s like having $100 and handing it to three people vs. five people. It’s still the same $100, but the five people get less than the three would.
That’s the most basic way I can explain the fascinating complexities of theme park traffic patterns.
However, new experiences don’t explain the lower wait times, especially since Disney has had some closures as well.
Sure, many of them were unpopular experiences, but Big Thunder Mountain Railroad has been closed all summer, too.
Photo: Disney
So, why aren’t the crowds where we’d expect them to be? Riffing off James Carville’s famous quote, “It’s the weather, dummy.”
This summer has been a scorcher in Central Florida (and many other parts of America), even by recent standards.
Disney
Here’s a Weather Spark chart that lists Orlando’s temperatures so far this month.
If you like 90-degree weather, you’re in luck! Of course, nobody likes 90-degree weather.
Photo: Disney
Not coincidentally, summer has faded a bit as the dominant vacation season at Walt Disney World.
I mean, Orlando has reached 90-degree temperatures more than 70 percent of the time in July.
Photo: Disney
For guests who have a choice about when to take their Disney vacations, that’s a good reason to wait.
Disney knew this, which explains why the parks have added these exceptional Cool Kid Summer activities.
Photo: Disney
Alas, “Cool Kid” has proven to be an ironic term due to the weather. NOBODY is cool at Disney right now.
What Can Disney Do?
Photo:Disneycoupon.jpg
That’s the billion-dollar question here, and Disney’s not the only theme park that needs to come up with an answer.
Epic Universe miscalculated quite a bit by building a new theme park primarily consisting of outdoor experiences.
The park is already talking about expansion, and I strongly suspect we’re about to hear a lot about new indoor rides.
As for Disney, the Monstropolis roller coaster will be an indoor attraction.
Photo: IGN
Similarly, the Encanto and Indiana Jones attractions will take place indoors as well.
That doesn’t mean Disney will abandon outdoor rides. As proof, at least one Cars ride will take place outside.
Photo: Disney
I actually suspect that both will, given what we know of them. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney is reconsidering.
The world’s just hotter than it was a few years ago, especially during the summer.
Photo: Disney
So, Disney and Universal must start planning for this trend to continue. At a minimum, it’s fail-safe.
Disney has caught a break in that the Miral Group will pay Imagineers to plot an entire theme park filled with indoor attractions.
miral
So, Disney can and will use that research to weather-proof its American theme parks as much as possible.
Still, Disney quantifiably worried about the wrong thing this summer…or at least its critics did.
The real enemy all along was Mr. Sun.
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Feature Photo: Disney
