Midway Through Disney’s Big Movie Year
Elio has entered theaters, and it’s done about as well as expected.
A long time ago, Pixar officials dialed back their expectations for the movie, which experienced a troubled production.
Photo: Pixar
Pixar made the rare decision to change directors midway through the creative process, which is why I’m surprised to say how much I enjoyed Elio.
As I said in my review, I think it’s better than the 2025 remake of Lilo & Stitch, although I acknowledge that won’t be the consensus opinion.
This week, we’ll likely wade through a slew of headlines along the lines of, “Is Pixar in trouble again?”
That’s because Elio has started slowly at the box office, just as Elemental did two years ago.
Still, while I sat in the theater awaiting the start of Elio, I couldn’t help but marvel at what’s about to happen.
We’re midway through Disney’s big movie year, and there’s plenty of cause for optimism.
What Just Happened
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We’re in late June now, which means that what Hollywood calls the summer campaign is officially one month old.
From Hollywood’s perspective, the season starts during Memorial Day, and it continues until Labor Day.
(Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)
However, the box office typically cools in mid-August when kids return to school. Until then, family-friendly films do better.
And you can probably guess where I’m going with this. Lilo & Stitch is massive at a scale that few expected.
Photo: Disney
I mentioned a few times that I thought the industry was sleeping on the film’s box office potential, yet even I am pretty stunned.
As Justin Hermes discussed the other day, the live-action remake of Disney’s best movie of the 21st century (you heard me) will break $1 billion.
Photo: Disney
In the process, Lilo & Stitch will become the first 2025 release to reach that plateau after having the only three billion-dollar hits of 2024.
Disney has objectively reasserted its box office dominance over the last calendar year, starting with Inside Out 2.
Photo: Disney
Notably, Elio won’t do as well. At this point, its best hope is following the trajectory of Elemental.
That film started slow before battling its way to nearly $500 million. Even Pixar officials expressed surprise over its longevity.
Photo: Disney
Here’s the interesting part, though. At this point, Disney has definitely lost money on Snow White.
The two Marvel movies, Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts*, have probably lost money in combination as well.
Marvel
These numbers won’t be what some sites suggest, but Thunderbolts* suddenly died, a somewhat unexpected event.
That’s three expensive misfires for Disney…and it doesn’t even matter.
Marvel
Lilo & Stitch will be so profitable that the studio is in the black for the first six months of 2025, even if Elio doesn’t make money.
What Comes Next?
Walt Disney Company
Here’s the interesting part. Disney knew well ahead of time – I’m talking more than a year – that its early 2025 would be a struggle.
That’s a feature, not a bug. When Disney faced an activist investor battle, it punted all its struggling film projects into 2025.
Photo: Disney
Snow White, Captain America 4, and Elio all fall into that bucket. So, none of us should be surprised by what has transpired.
Here’s the thing, though. Those trailers that Disney played in front of Elio were incredible!
Photo: Disney
I sat in a theater that was about 60 percent full, yet you would have believed that it was a packed house.
This level of crowd noise shouldn’t be possible for that number of people. That’s how jazzed they were about Disney’s upcoming lineup.
Photo: Marvel
In less than a month, The Fantastic Four: First Steps will debut, and I feel quite confident it’ll be Marvel’s biggest hit of the year.
Obviously, that’s not a bold hot take, given the struggles of its two predecessors.
Photo: Marvel
People were on the edge of their seats when Galactus’ foot appeared, though. Their nervous energy was tangible.
Somehow, that wasn’t the Disney movie that got the biggest reaction, though. I’m not even sure it had the second-best reception.
Photo: Disney
Disney has attached Tron: Ares to Elio, which seems like a mismatch. Elio skews young, right?
All the primary Tron fans are closer to the age of grandparents, unless Tron: Legacy has surged in popularity in recent years.
Photo: joblo.com
Surprisingly, Tron: Ares had the audience whooping and hollering. I guess I should have expected that since it’s so shiny. And kids love shiny.
Disney still has a potential problem here due to some allegations involving the film’s star, Jared Leto. There’s clearly demand for the movie, though.
Disney’s Biggest Hits
Photo: Marvel
Relative to scale, Fantastic Four should be one of Disney’s top three movies during the rest of 2025.
However, in terms of beating expectations, there’s one film that I believe people are sleeping on, and it’s Freakier Friday.
Photo: Disney
Folks, there were a lot of young mothers in the crowd during my Elio screening, and I’m sure that’s the case with yours as well.
Presuming that’s true, you know what I mean. There was euphoria on the faces of women in the audience when this trailer played.
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Somehow, Hollywood has forgotten how shockingly successful the 2003 version of this film was.
Disney spent a modest $26 million on it, with the film earning a factor of five more at $161 million.
Photo: vecteezy.com
Apparently, fans’ devotion to this film has only grown, and the timing feels ideal for the return of Freaky Friday.
While mid-tier films still haven’t recovered in the wake of the pandemic, I suspect that Freakier Friday will perform very well.
Finishing Strong
Photo: Disney
So, that’s Fantastic Four in July, Freakier Friday in August, and Tron: Ares in October.
September is typically the slowest box office month. So, the gap there is fine, and Disney has a Bruce Springsteen concert film in October, too.
Photo: Marvel
Then, Predator: Badland debuts on November 7th, giving Disney a couple of other potentially decent performers.
They’re the small potatoes, though. The real money arrives on November 26th and December 19th.
Photo: Disney
That’s when Disney’s massive sequels arrive. It’s Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash. I don’t even need to say anything about them.
You know the deal here. It’ll be a shock if one of those films fails to reach $1 billion.
Presuming that they both do, that’ll be the second consecutive year of Disney claiming (at least) three $1 billion earners.
And I’m not counting Tron: Ares, Fantastic Four, or Freakier Friday in that, much less the latest Predator film.
Photo: Disney
In short, midway through Disney’s big movie year, this is shaping up to be an even bigger campaign than 2024.
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