The Disney Merry-Go-Round Spins Again
At the end of 2019, The Walt Disney Company reigned over Hollywood. Some would even say “lorded over.”
Disney knew it had just finished the greatest box office year in the history of the industry. Nothing could stop them, right?
Walt Disney Company
Well, that’s the funny thing about the universe. One second, you can be at the top of the world.
Right afterward, you can be free-falling from Mount Everest, fearfully wondering whether you remembered to pack a parachute.
Photo: Getty
Life comes at you fast, and Bob Iger knows that lesson well. On January 1st, 2020, he was the CEO of the most powerful media company in the world.
Eight weeks later, he had suddenly retired and left Disney the following year. Only 11 months after that, Iger returned as CEO.
Mandatory Credit: Photo by JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
That’s what Disney has been like over the past five years. It’s just one constant headline generator, especially in the entertainment division.
Now, the Disney merry-go-round is spinning again. So, what should we expect this time? And is this just the way it is now?
Feels Like Forever Ago
Marvel: Avengers: Endgame
Here’s a quick list of Disney’s 2019 blockbusters:
- Avengers: Endgame — $2.8 billion (1)
- The Lion King — $1.66 billion (2)
- Frozen II — $1.45 billion (3)
- Spider-Man: Far from Home — $1.13 billion (4)
- Captain Marvel — $1.13 billion (5)
- Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker — $1.07 billion (7)
- Toy Story 4 — $1.07 billion (8)
- Aladdin — $1.05 billion (9)
Disney
Those numbers in parentheses? Yeah, that’s where they ranked in the top ten for the year.
Disney produced seven of the top nine movies in 2019, billion-dollar titles all of them, and claimed part of Spider-Man’s revenue, too.
Photo: Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
Stating the obvious, 2019 was a year for the ages, at least for Disney. Now, let’s look at Disney’s billion-dollar releases since then:
- Avatar: The Way of Water — $2.32 billion (1)
- Inside Out 2 — $1.7 billion (1)
- Deadpool & Wolverine — $1.34 billion (2)
- Moana 2 — $1.06 billion (3)
Photo: Disney
We could also throw in Spider-Man: No Way Home, which attained a jaw-dropping $1.91 billion at the time, since, again, Disney got a cut of that.
That’s it. That’s the list. For FIVE years! On the bright side, Disney seemingly turned a corner in 2024.
Source: Empire
You’ll notice that the studio once again claimed the top three titles of 2024, which made it look a little like 2019.
I’ll let you in on a secret, though. Seven is more than three. That’s how many billion-dollar films Disney had in 2019 and 2024, respectively.
Source: Marvel Studios’ SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
Don’t get me wrong. Disney was THRILLED with its 2024 box office campaign, but it still wasn’t anywhere near the same.
Since March of 2020, nothing has been the same, especially with Disney, one of the companies hit the hardest by the pandemic.
All Aboard the Merry Go Round
(Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)
I can prove this point by giving you a quick recap of Disney’s 2020-2023 at the box office.
Well, 2020 is easy because there really wasn’t any box office of note. You’ve probably never even heard of the number one global hit that year.
Getty
A Demon Slayer movie earned about $469 million that year, and if you don’t know what Demon Slayer is, we don’t have that kind of time for me to explain it.
For Disney’s part, the company pivoted to Disney+ Premier, a kind of PPV service for specific Disney releases like Soul and Mulan.
Photo: Disney+
I happened to love Disney+ Premier, as I usually prefer to watch movies in the comfort of my own home.
The concessions are cheaper, the chairs are more comfortable, and my cats can sit with us.
Photo: Disney
Alas, Disney learned a hard lesson with its streaming focus during the pandemic. The theatrical phase serves a vital purpose for a film.
That’s basically the marketing phase when people learn more about a movie via word-of-mouth from friends who watch it.
Photo: Disney
Without that, several very good films like Soul and Raya and the Last Dragon slipped through the cracks.
Disney’s only top ten release in 2021 was Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings, which earned $432 million.
2020 Disney. All Rights Reserved.
I can assure you that this was a superb performance, given everything that was happening at the time.
Alas, Eternals earned only $402 million and earned poor word-of-mouth and critical reception. Marvel was no longer bulletproof.
Other films from that year like Cruella and Jungle Cruise did fine for the pandemic, but they weren’t up to Disney’s lofty standards.
Even Encanto proved nothing special in theaters, earning $256 million. Its glory days came on streaming, making it the main exception thus far.
The Last 18 Months
Image: Disney
I discussed 2023 so much at the time that it feels like piling on now.
In case you’ve forgotten the trauma, here are the bombs from Disney’s disastrous 2023 campaign:
Image: Disney
- Haunted Mansion
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- The Marvels
- Wish
The year wasn’t a complete washout for Disney, thanks to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (GotG3) and The Little Mermaid.
I know that there was a shadowy smear campaign against The Little Mermaid, but it was profitable in theaters.
Disney wishes it had more films that could make that claim lately. That’s how the merry-go-round spins.
Photo: Disney
Every time Disney has a winner like GotG3, it suffers a debacle like The Marvels or a word-of-mouth failure like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
On January 1st, 2020, the Marvel Cinematic Universe appeared absolutely bulletproof. Today, well, it’s riddled with bullets.
Photo: Marvel
Disney claims that the budgets for Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* are $180 million each.
I’m relatively certain that Thunderbolts* came in much cheaper, but Disney split the budget expenses to make them look the same.
This decision has proven unfortunate as Thunderbolts*, objectively the superior film, is sitting at $375 million.
For a film with a $120 million budget, that would be great. For one at $180 million, it’s a draw at best.
Captain America: Brave New World has earned $40 million more than Thunderbolts*, which is a lot of the problem.
When a Marvel movie garners negative buzz, the next one opens worse. And that’s happening across the Disney entertainment empire.
You Never Know What’s Gonna Happen
Photo: Pixar
At this point, it’s anybody’s guess how any given Disney movie will do. Remember Elemental a couple of years ago?
Disney was coming off a couple of animated debacles like Strange Planet, and even Pixar hadn’t been above the fray with Lightyear.
Photo: Disney/Pixar
When Elemental opened poorly, everyone latched onto its performance as proof that Pixar had lost its touch.
Then, that sweet little film surprised everyone, even Pixar executives, by scratching and clawing its way to just under $500 million in box office.
This Inside Out concept art features Shame standing next to Anxiety. Photo: Reddit
Suddenly, people were willing to give Pixar a chance again, with Inside Out 2, last year’s number one film, as proof.
Similarly, Moana 2 made everyone forget about Wish, but the momentum of this stuff typically lasts for just a film or two.
Photo: Disney
As proof, let’s remember what just happened in March. Does a little film called Snow White ring a bell?
Yeah, you probably forgot that because you were too busy buying all the new Stitch merchandise.
Photo: Disney
That’s how wildly the Disney merry-go-round is spinning right now. We’d barely recovered from the historic failure of Snow White.
Now, Disney is careening into a billion-dollar blockbuster with Lilo & Stitch, which is already at $775 million as I type this.
Photo: Disney
So, everything is going great, right? Not so fast, bub. Pixar’s next film, Elio, debuts in theaters next.
This movie is currently tracking to open in the $35-$40 million range. Inside Out 2 opened to $154 million.
Photo: Disney/Pixar
Elemental, the film whose opening weekend caused everyone to freak out and say Pixar was dead, debuted to just under $30 million.
Let Me Off This Ride!
Walt Disney Company
The Disney merry-go-round never ends. Every time the company is riding a hot streak, something bad happens.
But then, whenever a film disappoints or maybe even bombs, another hit is right around the corner.
The Walt Disney Company
That’s the cycle Disney cannot currently escape, even five full years after the pandemic.
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Feature Photo: Disney
