Disney and the Perils of Consensus Opinion

Mine-Cart Madness hasn’t even opened yet, and people already hate it.

Now, the critics are in Japan, where the attraction is already up and running, and Mine-Cart Madness isn’t even a Disney ride.

So, where am I going with this? The complaints speak to a larger issue with theme park management.

In this day and age, you cannot get everyone to agree on literally anything. Let’s discuss the perils of consensus opinion and its impact on Disney expansion.

The Pull of Pessimism

I’ve been writing on the internet since the 1990s, which means I’ve seen it all over the years.

Since the rise of the internet, I’ve witnessed firsthand the ascension of contrarians, who typically come in two forms.

There are the trolls who are going to hate on literally anything because it earns them notoriety.

These are the kids who acted out in class for attention, and they somehow never evolved and matured as people. We pity them.

Then, we have the more considered contrarians, of which I’m one on some subjects.

Have you ever read my takes on Pandora – The World of Avatar?

I’m the person who prefers Na’vi River Journey to Avatar Flight of Passage.

I often joke that I’ve made a career of minority opinions, including some that I think are right.

Yes, that’s a list of my favorite films of 2004, untouched in more than 20 years.

Please try and tell me that The Incredibles wasn’t the best film that year.

Sometimes, holding a minority opinion on something is a good thing, as you’re willing to challenge convention.

Alas, that second group of people generally falls into a different bucket. They’re trapped in the algorithm.

In this internet era, they gain engagement by speaking negatively of everything, whether they believe it or not.

I find the behavior lazy, but it does work in some instances.

While he’s recently canceled, Skip Bayless made an entire career of speaking ill of LeBron James, the greatest NBA player of the 2000s.

Bored people enjoy negative takes more than positive ones.

There’s math to support that, and it’s created a cottage industry.

Without naming names, I’m confident you can think of several sites that have monetized negativity. It’s the pull of pessimism.

The Perils of Plurality

Then, we have The Walt Disney Company, the storytelling champion of the universe.

Disney has built its entire storytelling machine around the power of positivity, which makes it the outlier in the modern world.

Not coincidentally, several websites and influencers repeatedly speak ill of Disney for clicks.

I don’t want to give such antics any oxygen, yet we should acknowledge this behavior exists.

Since people do this to gain influence – the very nature of an influencer – their words carry undue weight, even when they’re wrong.

And that brings us back to Disney, which is quite capable of making mistakes.

The story about Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser converting to office space reinforces that point.

This hotel opened less than three years ago! Somehow, we already knew it was a bomb less than two years ago.

The funny part is that for the decade leading up to its opening if you had asked Disney fans whether the hotel would succeed, they’d have answered yes.

I know because the subject DID come up, as Disney often surveyed fans about their interest.

Let’s just say that interest was rather high. Then, Disney screwed up the most important part: the pricing.

From that moment forward, the consensus opinion was decidedly negative.

Here’s the thing, though. Galactic Starcruiser sold out for its first nine months in operation.

So, that consensus opinion wasn’t representative of all paying customers, a behavior we’re witnessing right now.

I’m apparently dead wrong regarding the demand for Lightning Lane Premier Pass, a system I suggested needed tweaking.

Three months after I wrote that article, Lightning Lane sold out on a random Friday…in January.

Disney appears to be right, and I look ridiculously wrong, as do most analysts who spoke on the topic.

Consensus opinion isn’t the same as objective truth.

The Power of Peer Pressure

That reality leads me to the inescapable fact here. Consumers vote with their wallets.

Anyone who thinks they understand consumer behavior better than Disney is being arrogant and foolish.

Somehow, that’s only half the problem, though. In fact, let’s define the problem once and for all.

Disney must anticipate customer behavior years ahead of time. And let me be clear on the point.

I mean demonstrated behavior, not public opinion…which brings me back to Mine-Cart Madness. Here’s a video of that ride:

To hear critics describe this attraction, it’s trash. Early riders have questioned the length of the experience, which is admittedly short.

From start to finish, the ride lasts maybe 90 seconds, which is basically Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith length.

Universal promised a cutting-edge attraction that makes guests feel like they’re jumping off the track.

More importantly, this ride was the most thematic and, thereby, Disney-like in the history of Universal Studios Japan.

Universal delivered on everything. An outspoken group of fans, who may or may not be the majority, aren’t happy with it.

The debate will remind some Disney fans of the outcry over Seven Dwarfs Mine Train.

After a couple of years of hype, the roller coaster/dark ride hybrid arrived, and critics often stated, “That’s it?!”

Disney promptly had the last laugh, as Seven Dwarfs Mine Train became the most popular ride at Magic Kingdom for a decade.  

But that’s how conversation works in this era. People pay more attention to the criticism than the praise. And they feel peer pressure to agree.

To prove the point, I’ll take this opportunity to praise Mine-Cart Madness.

While I won’t ride it until June, that’s visually what a Donkey Kong Kart attraction should look like. And I mean exactly!

The Problem with Planning

You can imagine the pressure this problem places on park planners.

Disney is currently adding new experiences at all of its American theme parks.

As Imagineers ponder infinite possibilities, they’re acutely aware that no matter what they do, some critics will hate the new stuff.

As an example, Alien Swirling Saucers never had a chance, and Disney did itself no favors by giving the ride those initials.

Critics lazily dismissed the attraction by its abbreviation, and the perception has stuck even though it’s a fun ride.

The next Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster probably won’t be much different than the original since we’ve already seen this once.

Disneyland Paris updated its version to Avengers Assemble: Flight Force, and it was so disappointing that it received a quick reboot.

There’s only X amount an Imagineer can do while re-theming a finished attraction.

Fans don’t accept realities like that, though. To their mind, every Disney addition should be an E-ticket attraction.

Park planners know this, which explains why the carousel ride at The Tropical Americas isn’t being differentiated yet.

Disney knew that if it listed this one as an extra ride, critics would complain about its very existence…even though carousels are fun.

Then, we have the ancillary issue of opportunity cost.

When Disney announced new experiences, fans almost reflexively added, “What about…”

I even did it with The Lion King boat ride, which I discussed in the latest batch of Disney Rumors.

At this point, no matter what Disney does, a significant portion of fans will express disappointment and possibly even frustration.

I’m embarrassed to confess that there’s ample evidence I might be one of them, as it’s become a part of human nature.

No matter what Disney chooses to create, there’s simply no way to gain a consensus opinion without a vocal minority expressing outrage.

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