Disney Headlines for November 5th, 2024
Hi! I’m at the parks this week, which allows me to do something slightly different with Disney Headlines.
On October 30th, The Hollywood Reporter posted some betting odds about Disney succession.
Photo:impulsecreative.com
I have talked about this a lot lately, and much of the article covers the same ground.
Some people believe that Disney will hire one of the presumed candidates, but the odds have increased for an outsider to become CEO.
Walt Disney Company
Rather than dwelling on that, I wanted to discuss some fun stuff they add at the end of the article, which you can read here.
THR posts a set of odds for some reasonable to ridiculous Disney events to occur.
So, in this week’s Disney Headlines, we’ll discuss why some of the bets are reasonable while others are…let’s say outlandish.
We’ll cover topics like the next Star Wars movie, an animated MCU, and the zombie-like return of the Star Wars Hotel. Enjoy!
Will the Next Star Wars Movie Be Good?
Photo: Playbuzz.com
Those of you unfamiliar with odds should know something in advance.
When the odds of something happening are 1 to 1, the implied probability is 50 percent.
Credit: Disney
So, any odds higher than 1:1 mean that the person views them as unlikely to occur.
Everything we discuss here has odds of at least 2:1, which, whether the writer fully understands or not, suggests that they’re unlikely.
Photo: Star Wars
The first topic has 2:1 odds, and it’s whether the next Star Wars movie will be good.
That’s a loaded question since there’s only one on the schedule.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
The Mandalorian & Grogu will debut in theaters on May 26th, 2026.
This release date suggests that Disney has complete confidence in the project, as Memorial Day releases are generally among the best of the year.
Getty
Then again, Solo: A Star Wars Story, the least successful film in the franchise to date, opened during Memorial Day Weekend.
In 2024, the number one film was Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, which was also a financial flop.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
So, the release date guarantees nothing. Still, I think THR has missed this one.
No matter how picky Star Wars fans are, The Mandalorian & Grogu isn’t going to miss at the box office.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
Sure, some fans will spend countless hours complaining about it, but that’s what some “fans” do.
All that matters to Disney is the box office and the underlying film quality.
The box office determines initial financial success, while the quality factors heavily into a title’s lingering popularity.
I see no reason to doubt The Mandalorian & Grogu on either point, as I’m not really a Star Wars fan, yet even I love Baby Yoda.
Will Disney Make an AI Deal
Photo:Rappler
Again, the odds here suggest that this is unlikely. The writer lays 5:1 odds on this particular topic.
Specifically, “Disney enters a partnership with an artificial intelligence company for post-production support.”
Photo: Computer Hope
That math suggests a 16.67 percent chance of Disney working such a deal. That is waaaaay too low.
Companies like Disney make deals like this all the time, partially to improve technology and partially because Wall Street loves them.
Photo: DVC
You’ll find all sorts of under-the-radar deals like these throughout Disney’s history, along with some more famous ones that didn’t work out.
Club Penguin and Maker Studios are two good examples of the latter, companies Disney bought but failed to monetize over time.
Photo: Washington Post
To be fair, Club Penguin only cost Disney $350 million and sold very well for its first few years. Then, it had lost steam by 2015.
So, that one wasn’t a bad financial move, simply one that didn’t have legs. Maker Studios cost Disney $500 million with little to show for it.
Photo:seoclerk.com
To a larger point, this sort of deal makes sense to Disney. Post-production crunch is real.
Any automated tools that assist creatives in accelerating and streamlining the process are a good thing.
grammarly
As an example, I’m a creative who has used Grammarly nearly since its inception. It’s helped me avoid mistakes and write better.
The AI boogeyman is often overstated since so few people have a real understanding of what it is.
If/when Disney can find something that improves its efficiency, that deal is a no-brainer and absolutely inevitable.
Update: After I packed my luggage for vacation, Disney announced a new AI division within the company, making the odds of something like this near-certain.
Could Disney Create Its Own Spider-Verse?
Photo; The Direct
Here’s a thrilling proposition for movie lovers, especially MCU fans.
A few years ago, Sony agreed to create animated versions of the Spider-Man stories, ones starring Miles Morales rather than Peter Parker.
Image: Sony
The first two films in that universe, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Man, are near-perfect projects.
In fact, here’s a delightful video of Mayday being a kawaii queen for four minutes:
These two films have grossed $1.074 billion. Disney should absolutely want a taste of that at some point.
However, the writer places the odds at 40:1, which is approximately a 2.4 percent chance of happening. And I understand why.
Should Disney make an MCU version of the Spider-Verse now, it’d be perceived as a copycat.
Photo: Sony
Also, without the creative team of Lord & Miller handling production, such a project is unlikely to possess the same magic.
Before you say that Disney should just poach Lord & Miller, I’ll remind you that they previously worked for the company.
Image Credit: Sony
That film was…Solo: A Star Wars Story. Disney fired Lord & Miller, freeing them to make…Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
So, yeah, this one is a long shot. Still, with Marvel’s What If…? ending soon, the idea makes a LOT of sense.
Come on, Disney! Fans want this!
Could Disney Reopen Galactic Starcruiser?
Photo: Disney
I suspect the author includes this one as a joke, as they list the odds at 4,000:1.
That’s about the same odds as the Carolina Panthers winning the Super Bowl.
Photo: Disney
The author phrases the possibility in a specific way: “Disney brings back its Star Wars Galactic Starcruiser hotel and experience, this time 20 percent less expensive.”
That’s not going to happen…well, not in that form. At some point, Disney probably will do something with that building, though.
Photo: Disney
Disney hates to waste space, especially on recently developed buildings.
So, I fully expect something to happen here at some point. Then again, the Wonders of Life pavilion has been a waste of space since 2007.
Photo: Disney
If Disney did want to repurpose Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser, it’d need to take a few steps, starting with adding windows in the building.
People just weren’t ready for the claustrophobic nature of the environment, although the experience certainly developed some loyal fans.
Credit: Kent Phillips, photographer/Disney
That’s how I evaluate these particular Disney bets. Do you disagree with me about any of them? Let me know in the comments!
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