The Theme Park War Just Heated Up

On October 24th, 2024, tickets will go on sale for Orlando’s first new theme park since the 1990s.

Then, Universal Epic Universe will officially open to the public on May 22^nd, 2025.

At that point, Universal Orlando Resort will have introduced two new theme parks since the last time Walt Disney World opened one.

So, the theme park war just heated up. Here’s what’s happening and what it means.

Universal Looks up to Disney  

Your perception of Universal Orlando Resort (UOR) likely depends on your age.

If you’ve spent your formative years since, say, 2009, you primarily think of the park as two things.

UOR is the home to The Wizarding World of Harry Potter, the place that brought your favorite childhood stories to life.

Also, as you grew older, UOR hosted one of your favorite annual events, Halloween Horror Nights.

Still, you’ve always known on some level that Walt Disney World is vastly superior to Universal Studios because, well, it is.

That’s not me saying anything controversial. I’m merely stating facts.

In 2023, the Themed Entertainment Association tracked Disney theme parks as attracting 142 million visitors.

Universal Studios only ranked fourth in this category with 60.8 million.

So, 2.3 tourists visit a Disney theme park for every trip to Universal Studios.

More Disney vs. Universal Numbers

The perception is that the competition is closer because Orlando has a stronger media foothold than theme park imprint.

Universal’s three American parks claimed an estimated attendance of 29.41 million in 2023.

Magic Kingdom and Disneyland alone totaled right at 35 million. Overall, Disney’s six parks hosted about 76 million guests.

That’s a discrepancy of 2.56 Disney guests for every Universal guest.

Universal fans would be quick to counter that Disney has twice as many American parks.

So, even if we average attendance based on each park, Disney parks averaged 12.667 million tourists, while Universal managed 9.8 million.

For those of you unfamiliar with such calculations, it’s more impressive to hold the same average across a larger number of businesses, too.

And Occam’s Razor applies. Disney does more with its top two parks than Universal does with all its American parks.

Similarly, Disney’s lesser four parks match or outperform Universal’s, even when we pick Disney’s worst three in terms of attendance.

That number for Disney California Adventure, Disney’s Animal Kingdom, and Disney’s Hollywood Studios is 29 million as well.

If we swap in EPCOT, it’s over 30 million. So, no matter how we slice it, Disney is the market leader.

Rumors of competition between the two parks have always been gravely exaggerated.

To wit, Universal upgraded its original park, Universal Studios Hollywood, once Disneyland demonstrated proof of concept.

Then, Universal chose Orlando specifically because it could entice Disney guests to split their vacations.

And that’s what leads the conversation into the brewing Theme Park War of 2025.

Universal’s Bold New Plan

Let’s circle back to that mention of your perception of Universal Studios.

Those of us who remember the days before The Wizarding World of Harry Potter perceive the park much differently.

It’s the younger sibling living in the shadow of its much more successful elder.

I’m not saying that to be mean. It’s just a reminder of how the 1990s played out after Universal Studios Florida opened.

There’s a reason why most of the park’s attendance charts start just before that park opened.

Anything before that borders on pointless. During the 1990s, Universal officials simply could not convince most tourists to visit.

Theme park attendance consistently hovered in the 7-9 million range.

As an example, in 1998, the top four theme parks in North America were all Disney establishments.

Universal Studios Florida had 8.9 million, but a new park would arrive the next year. And this is where history will likely repeat itself.

Park officials hoped that more guests would flock to Universal Orlando Resort when Universal’s Islands of Adventure debuted.

Universal had poached several former Imagineers off the open market after Disney layoffs.

These employees designed Islands of Adventure as a Disney-esque theme park.

Instead, Universal Studios Florida suffered a nine percent drop, which experts explained at the time as “primarily because of “cannibalization” from the opening of its next-door neighbor, the $1 billion Islands of Adventure in June.”

At the time, the suggestion was that Universal didn’t do enough to market the new park.

Also, Universal, in its infinite wisdom, called the two parks by the name of Universal Studios Escape.

I shy away from statements like this as a rule, but I hope someone got fired over that one. YIKES!

 

So, the next step in the Theme Park War is avoiding that happening again.

Universal’s New Approach

In 1999, Universal Orlando – I’m never calling it the other thing again – attendance “rose” to 11.5 million.

So, adding an entirely new, mega-expensive theme park only increased attendance by 2.5 million.

For the full year of 2000, the two parks claimed attendance of 8.1 million and 6 million.

In short, the arrival of Islands of Adventure (IoA) hurt Universal Studios Florida (USF), but the new park wasn’t very popular.

By 2009, attendance had dwindled at both, with USF hosting just 5.53 million guests with 4.627 million at IoA.

Universal built an entirely new theme park, yet its overall attendance level in 2009 was only about 1.3 million more than USF alone in 1998.

There’s a reason why the old guard perceives UOR a certain way. It was soooo bad before it got good.

The change occurred with the debut of The Wizarding World in 2010. By 2012, the two parks combined to host 14.2 million guests.

Folks, that’s a 40 percent increase in just three years! And the momentum grew through 2019, when the parks combined for attendance of 21.3 million.

In 2025, Universal hopes and likely expects something similar.

Thus, park officials have priced Epic Universe oddly. You must purchase a three-day ticket to visit the new park for one day.

When friends heard about this, they checked with me for confirmation.

After I told them it was true, well, they could have filled a swear jar. I’m not even joking. I can’t let my mother look at my texts this week.

But from a business perspective, the idea makes sense.

The Theme Park War Just Heated Up

Universal officials are so confident in their upcoming theme park, their most Disney-like one to date, that they’re pricing it accordingly.

Less than 24 hours after Disney announced Lightning Lane Premier Pass, Universal has taken the concept a step further.

For $352-$521, you’ll buy a three-day admission ticket to UOR. In truth, it’s the cost of doing business to visit Epic Universe once.

You’re paying a minimum of $352 for that one glorious day, and a lot of people are going to do it. I’m probably one of them.

Still, this pricing approach isn’t just about maximizing revenue. It’s about learning from past mistakes.

Universal officials know it’d be a bad look for the other two parks to be empty while Epic Universe faces constant overcrowding issues.

So, this ticket package should at least theoretically cause some balance.

Tourists have already paid for the other two park visits. Why wouldn’t they use them at USF and IoA?

Yes, those parks will naturally experience attendance downturns in 2025 due to the expected, predictable siphoning by the new park.

But this ticket package strategy lessens the imbalance and encourages tourists to do all three.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Universal offered additional amenities to incentivize more and longer visits at those two parks.

Then, we have Epic Universe, which should sell itself. After five years of hype, everyone should know what it is when it opens.

That’s Disney’s problem and why the Theme Park War has heated up.

First, Universal will claim larger overall attendance at UOR in 2025 and beyond since it’s adding another park.

Epic Universe will also be the hottest ticket in town for a while.

So, Disney will feel the squeeze, at least theoretically.

How Much Does Epic Universe Hurt Disney?

That’s the debate many analysts are having right now.

For its part, Disney hasn’t expressed much public concern. Instead, executives like CEO Bob Iger have been polite about it.

Outside observers indicate that Disney may lose up to two million guests to the grand opening of the new park.

I suspect that’s high, as demand for Walt Disney World still vastly outweighs supply.

Also, Epic Universe’s stiff ticket pricing will unintentionally assist Disney, which has four parks that people want to visit.

Universal isn’t acting like it does by basically bribing people into showing up at USF and IoA in 2025.

For its part, Disney has stated that a rising tide should lift all boats.

Some executives feel strongly that the arrival of Epic Universe will increase overall tourism in Orlando.

Who benefits the most from more tourists in the area? Why, it’s the theme park alpha, of course.

Universal is hoping to persuade guests to spend four or days at their parks or, at a minimum, three.

That’s still leaves the rest of a vacation for a Disney World visit.

So, the argument that Epic Universe will hurt Disney has at least some holes in it.

Despite this fact, analysts seem convinced that Disney’s attendance and revenue will decline in 2025 due to this new threat.

I don’t know whether they’re right or not – I’m inclined to think not – but it’s going to be THE story to track over the next 12 months.

We now know that the Theme Park Wars officially begin during Memorial Day Weekend 2025.

So, stay tuned. It’s about to get good!

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