Could Florida Be Impacted By This Brewing Tropical Threat?
A tropical threat is brewing in the Caribbean with the potential to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane.
While several forecast models show a strong tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week, the storm’s exact path and intensity are still uncertain.
Medium Odds
The National Hurricane Center currently gives “medium odds” for this system to develop in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf within the next week. However, the odds are increasing as time passes.
“From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still at play,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan.
At the heart of this weather system is the Central American Gyre, a large area of low pressure that typically forms over Central America. It can produce heavy rain and flooding, and under the right conditions, like the warm waters of the Caribbean, it could develop into tropical storms or hurricanes.
Meteorologists are watching the present situation and note 4 possible outcomes:
Scenario 1: Gyre Forms Without Tropical Development


Fox
In this scenario, the gyre forms and brings heavy rain to Central America, but no tropical storm develops. “This being the least impactful to the U.S. mainland,” said Morgan, “(but) that doesn’t speak anything to what we could see in Central America.”
The torrential rain and storms would still affect Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and parts of Mexico.
Scenario 2: Weak Low Steered West into Central America


Fox
If low-pressure forms on the northern or western edge of the gyre, it could be blocked by high pressure over the southern U.S. and steered into Central America. This again brings heavy rainfall and potential landslides.
Scenario 3: Low Develops in the Eastern Caribbean


Fox
A more concerning scenario is if a low forms on the eastern side of the gyre in the Caribbean. A cyclone could eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten coastal areas.
Scenario 4: Tropical Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico


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The most concerning scenario involves a low forming directly in the Gulf that mixes with record-warm waters and quickly develops into a hurricane.
Be Prepared
According to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross, computer forecasts show a tropical storm or hurricane moving north and potentially affecting somewhere between Louisiana and Florida late next week.
It is important to remember that we are still in the middle of hurricane season, and regardless of the possible scenarios, all meteorologists agree that being prepared and informed is critical.


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Article/Feature Photo: NY POST