Sizing Up Disney vs. Universal in 2025 and Beyond…

A few recent stories tie together to paint a compelling picture of Central Florida’s future.

Some recent data suggests that Universal Orlando Resort has slowed down, which isn’t what people want the narrative to be.

With Universal Epic Universe opening next year, the perception is that the gap has closed between Disney and Universal.

Is that true? Does it even matter? Or is a rising tide about to lift all boats?

Let’s size up the competition between Disney and Universal in 2025 and beyond.

The Two-Player Game

Earlier this year, I discussed the evolving nature of the Disney/Universal competition. It’s a two-player game.

Those two players, Disney and Universal, aren’t just fine. They’re dominant. Everyone else in the industry is struggling right now.

So, this isn’t a Coke/Pepsi or McDonald’s/Burger King discussion. It’s closer to Netflix/Disney versus everyone else.

Netflix and Disney’s streaming services are in good shape. All the other competitors are scrambling to survive, and some won’t.

The same statement applies to theme parks, where SeaWorld attendance is declining, while Cedar Fair and Six Flags are trying to merge.

For whatever reason, that’s not how people choose to report the industry, though. Instead, it’s Universal vs. Disney.

I find that odd since they’re the two businesses with secure positions in the marketplace.

Also, to a larger point, Universal would need to double its scale to be anything close to a viable threat to Disney.

That sort of pragmatism doesn’t bait clickers, though. People want a competition, a brass knuckles brawl between the industry alphas.

Alas, recent corporate filings show that it won’t be happening in 2024. Universal Orlando Resort’s attendance declined in early 2024.

Park officials aren’t worried about it because they view 2024 as the calm before the storm.

Well, that’s a half-truth, as the attendance part is calm. Behind the scenes, the Epic Universe construction signifies a massive undertaking.

Similarly, some previous poor decisions at Universal Orlando Resort have come back to haunt Universal.

Attractions like Fast & Furious: Supercharged, Race Through New York Starring Jimmy Fallon, and Hollywood Rip Ride Rockit aren’t good.

Management is contemplating how to salvage them and make them more appealing to guests. It’s a tense year for Universal execs.

Everything Changes in 2025

In early 2019, I suggested to someone else at MickeyBlog that everything we were doing should build around Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.

The arrival of that themed land served as an inflection point for the future of Walt Disney World.

A similar statement applies to the opening of Epic Universe, which should alter the way that tourists perceive Universal Studios.

For the first time, Universal is building a Disney-quality theme park, at least to an extent.

Sources vary on the overall cost of the new park, with some suggesting as little as $1 billion.

That total would actually be less than what Disney paid for Galaxy’s Edge alone.

Other estimates hover in the $3-$4 billion range, which still isn’t a lot relative to Disney construction.

Remember that Shanghai Disneyland cost $5.5 billion to build in 2016. We’ve had eight years of hyperinflation since then.

That’s the Disney Divide right there. A historically unprecedented project for another theme park company would earn scorn if Disney did it.

Disney’s next part, wherever that is, must cost more than Shanghai Disneyland. Otherwise, it’ll sound like Disney cut corners.

Does that make sense? Absolutely not. Epic Universe shows what the expected cost should be for a new park…but people demand more of Disney.

Meanwhile, Epic Universe won’t cost anywhere near as much, yet analysts will pretend that its presence represents an existential threat to Walt Disney World.

Is that true? Of course not. In fact, Disney’s recent actions underscore how much it expects to benefit from the competition.

The Rising Tide

When Epic Universe opens next year, Central Florida tourism will surge again.

What’s the one place in Orlando where everyone wants to go? Yup, it’s Walt Disney World.

Universal loyalists may disagree with this supposition, but the company’s plan for Epic Universe is more modest than presented.

Currently, tourists consider Universal Orlando Resort as a two- or three-day park. Some only spend a day there.

With the arrival of Epic Universal, park officials hope to change that perception to make it a three- or four-day vacation.

Disney officials are aware of this fact, which has led to a fascinating game of political chicken happening locally.

The Brightline rail service has already connected several parts of Florida.

Now, SunRail and Brightline are working on a plan to connect the Orlando International Airport to Disney Springs.

Along the way, SunRail will take the so-called Sunshine Corridor, which will stop near the Orange County Convention Center.

Not at all coincidentally, that station would reside only a couple of miles from Epic Universe, which has led to an epic struggle.

Comcast, the corporate owner of Universal Studios, donated 13 acres of land, and up to $125 million to secure the Sunshine Corridor.

Disney vigorously opposed the idea and dropped out once Florida politicians agreed to the Sunshine Corridor.

Now, Disney has signaled its willingness to play ball again. The reason why is simple.

Disney doesn’t need to invest a single dollar at the parks next year for demand to increase.

Universal, a competitor, has already done the heavy lifting for Disney by building a new theme park.

Barring something unforeseen, Central Florida will experience record tourism in 2025, and Disney will benefit from that.

Disney’s Real Foe

The reality of 2025 is that Walt Disney World attendance won’t suffer a bit due to the arrival of Epic Universe.

No matter how much people pretend otherwise, the world’s most popular theme park isn’t vulnerable to competition right now.

Nothing Epic Universe offers, not even Super Nintendo World, will be enough to make a dent in Disney’s earnings.

Instead, Disney’s real struggle will be one of perception. Critics will want to write the story that Universal is gaining on Disney.

Somehow, they’ll do that while several of Universal Orlando’s newest attractions face possible re-themes/closures.

The attractions I mentioned earlier are busts, dramatic misfires along the lines of Superstar Limo.

Universal has stuck with them because it didn’t want to expend the resources or admit failure.

Epic Universe will probably provide the cover park officials need to quietly make some changes at the other two parks.

Meanwhile, Disney officials will spend the body of 2025 explaining why they’re not threatened by Epic Universe.

The worst part is that even though they’ll be completely sincere, nobody will believe them.

Even now, theme park analysts are writing articles about how precarious Disney’s position is.

You won’t see anybody doing the same of Coke or McDonald’s because the ideas are laughable. But Disney plays by different rules for some reason.

Anytime something new debuts in Orlando, Disney must defend why it’s not opening something as well.

Sizing Up the Competition in 2025 and Beyond

In terms of competition, Universal and Disney will both claim jaw-dropping attendance numbers.

You shouldn’t be surprised if Epic Universe quickly catapults into the top five in the area, perhaps as early as 2026.

The only reason that won’t happen in 2025 is that the park will only be open half the year.

But is Epic Universe’s ascension a threat to Disney? No. In fact, in many ways, it’s beneficial.

Tourists who aren’t annual visitors will flock to Orlando. That’s the rising tide of revenue that lifts all boats.

Since Universal Studios isn’t a full-week park, guests will find other entertainment in Orlando…and that’s Disney World.

In short, while Universal attendance is down this year – which is understandable, given that people are waiting until Epic Universe – it’s doing fine.

Similarly, we won’t learn Disney’s first quarter park earnings until next week, but it has offered recent promotions.

These deals suggest that Disney isn’t trending toward a record-setting 2024. So, it’s offering some discounts to entice guests.

Presumably, all this is happening because infrequent travelers know what’s coming next year, and they’re willing to wait.

So, the future for Central Florida tourism looks flat for 2024, but it’s going to shatter records next year, barring something unforeseen.

Some want to paint Epic Universe as a threat to Walt Disney World. In reality, it’s a boon not just for Disney but the entire area.

Thanks for visiting MickeyBlog.com! Want to go to Disney? For a FREE quote on your next Disney vacation, please fill out the form below, and one of the agents from MickeyTravels, a Diamond Level Authorized Disney Vacation Planner, will be in touch soon!

Feature Photo: Disney/Universal