Disney Just Delayed Park Re-Openings. What Does It Mean?
Okay, The Walt Disney Company has now confirmed what we’d long suspected. The parks will not re-open on April 1st. I don’t think anyone feels surprised by this, but the announcement does provide some insights into what we should expect next. Here’s the latest on the status of Disney theme parks.
What Disney Just Said
— Disney Parks News (@DisneyParksNews) March 27, 2020
Here are the key words from the press release:
“As a result of this unprecedented pandemic and in line with direction provided by health experts and government officials, Disneyland Resort and Walt Disney World Resort will remain closed until further notice.”
While most of us are crushed by the additional delay, cast members received a bit of good news. Here’s the pertinent text:
“The Walt Disney Company has been paying its cast members since the closure of the parks, and in light of this ongoing and increasingly complex crisis, we have made the decision to extend paying hourly parks and resorts cast members through April 18th.”
The Numbers behind Disney’s Decision
The full tweet is right there for you to interpret as you like. Still, I’ll add a bit of context that I deem applicable. For starters, the timeline is interesting in that a competitor just did the same thing.
Universal Studios recently announced that it will remain closed until April 19th. Effectively, the two major theme parks in the industry have reset the deadline for the next park re-opening discussions until the middle of April.
So, Disney has realistically confirmed what most had expected. The earlier closure through the end of March didn’t last long enough. The spread of infection has forced the company’s hand here.
After all, on the last publication date for this article, March 22nd, the United States had identified 28,368 citizens infected with COVID-19. As I type this, the country just blew past a scary milestone of 100,000 patients. It’s at 116,057 as I type this. That’s the growth curve that epidemiologists have warned us could happen.
Every two or three days, the numbers double. In fact, the math works eerily correctly here as COVID-19 cases have quadrupled in six days. Who knows what the numbers will be by the start of April? Yes, we can model it, but everyone is primarily guessing, as I’ll explain in a bit.
Disney and Cast Members
The undeniable aspect of the press release is that Disney can’t re-open its American theme parks right now. I say this for several reasons. For starters, cast members never received new schedules. Their bosses had hinted at a soft re-opening on March 29th, which would have been insane given current circumstances.
Now, Disney has stated that everyone will continue getting paid until April 18th. This decision solves at least one problem. A cast member union group, Workers United Local 50, had requested that Disney inform them of its plans
The group asked that Disney say something no later than Friday, March 27th, at 3 p.m. Nearly 8,000 Disney employees are members of that union, which gives its statement some weight.
The company met this request with its announcement and thereby established that everyone doesn’t have to worry about paychecks until at least April 18th. It provides a bit of financial certainty that Disney cast members had lacked.
Disney and the Local Governments
Orange County, Florida, and its neighbor, Osceola County, both issued stay-at-home mandates through April 9th. On the west coast, California governor, Gavin Newsom, similarly asked that state residents should stay inside unless their work qualifies as essential.
With two different governments, both local and state, requesting the same thing, Disney didn’t have a choice here. Disney would have gone against lawful requests for the parks to reopen. New CEO Bob Chapek and his old boss, Bob Iger, were never going to do that.
The critical fact here is that the Florida requests end on April 9th. After that date, Disney will have a bit more leverage. California behaved proactively by becoming the first state to switch to mandatory stay-at-home restrictions.
While Governor Newsom didn’t list an end date, we know that scientists believe that we’re about 17-19 days away from the peak of the infection. That would point to a time around April 12-15 as the time when Disney must decide again.
By that point, as many as 1.36 million Americans could have COVID-19. A reasonable best-case scenario still means over 400,000 afflicted. Yes, that’s a variance of nearly one million potential patients, which aptly demonstrates the importance of flattening the curve. Disney can’t determine anything about its theme parks until we know which way this situation goes.
Given this information, Disney’s announcement looks smart. The company has delayed the need for additional updates until its executives possess two more weeks of information about COVID-19. In mid-April, everyone should have a better idea regarding whether the current measures have worked. So, Disney wisely kicked the can down the road for three weeks.
Hope from Other Parts of the World
Let’s circle back to our earlier discussions. When I first talked about the potential impact of Coronavirus on American theme parks, I pointed out that 71.6 percent of victims had survived. Those numbers have improved to 79.1 percent. Medical officials are getting better about the treatment of COVID-19.
Yes, questions remain about the honesty/accuracy of reports in China and other parts of the world. Still, the reality is that China has mostly stopped the spread of infection. Based on the public numbers, the entire country has experienced less than 1,400 new infections during March!
I understand that people are prone not to accept the integrity of those statistics. Still, the prevailing belief is that China is recovering thanks to its remarkable job in flattening the curve. As infections grow dramatically in the United States, we look to other places like Japan and South Korea as inspirations for how to do the same.
In fact, these places are more concerned about the potential second phase of the outbreak. China re-opened its theaters last weekend, only to close them again after less than a week. This tactic failed because Chinese citizens take Coronavirus so seriously that they refused to return to theaters. It’s heartening to hear that people understand what’s at stake now.
Shanghai Disneyland has also taken an interesting step. Guests can visit the stores and restaurants that have re-opened here. However, to do so, everyone must verify that they’re not running a fever. Disney employees check their temperature before allowing access. This sort of measure is one that we might expect at Disney’s American parks once they return.
On the Bright Side…
I said last week that I think Disney parks might return in April, and I still believe that. A lot depends on how seriously people take the stay-at-home requests. Let me explain.
Several signs of hope exist. For example, there were fewer new COVID-19 cases confirmed on March 27th than March 26th. The same was true on March 24th compared to March 23rd. Part of the explanation undeniably stems from a lack of tests and slowness with test results. However, it also hints that the stay-at-home measures in place have a positive impact.
People are understandably freaked out right now since most of us have never experienced anything like this. As someone who has modeled Coronavirus since January, I can say with total honesty that the last 10 days went as badly as I had feared…but the empirical data suggests that we’re getting smarter about this. Once everyone stopped with the hoax claims and grew serious, the situation improved.
With a pandemic, what happens right now is oddly more of a reflection of decisions made weeks/months ago. This past week represents unforced errors made in January and February. We’ve acted more appropriately in March, and I notice the long-term benefits of it when I model mid-April and beyond.
Final Analysis
What does all that mean? The numbers will sound scary for at least another 10 days. If you’re like me and have one of the Coronavirus consoles pulled up all the time, you will see a lot of hefty increases. Thankfully, the curve looks to flatten, though.
Here’s some data that will help you as a person, not just as a Disney fan. Over the past six days, the Coronavirus growth rate has dropped from 38.9 percent to 21.9 percent. It’s averaged 27.7 percent, which means that we’ve gotten better recently. Also and most importantly, the rate of growth has decreased every day this week
As long as we continue down this path, we will get past this. Our lives will return to normal, and Disney can re-open.
Like I said last week, keep washing your hands and keeping your distance, my friends! You’re not just doing it for yourself. You’re doing it for Mickey and Minnie Mouse, too!